Vi har talat om Jeffry Browns Export Land Model här tidigare på denna blogg och de analyser han gjort relaterat till världens idag fem största netto olje exportörer, som idag står för motsvarande 50% av all världens totala olje export.
Analysen visar att dessa fem länders netto olje export når 0 ca 2031. Det ger samtidigt att dessa länder sammantaget redan ca år 2019 har tappat mer än 50% av dagens exportvolym. Det är onekligen mycket kraftiga bortfall således under mycket kort tid. Hinner världen att redan under kommande 10 år ha ersatt hela vår existerande bilpark och transportsystem med icke fosila lösningar blir en av frågeställningarna.
Första kravet blir nog att vi har ett fungerande finansiellt system och kreditmarknad som klarar att fördela våra resurser på bästa sätt. Idag är det kanske just de företag vi kommer att behöva mest framöver som utsätts för störst påfrestningar och som givet ex den credit crunch vi nu bevittar inte får de nödvändiga medel för att kunna utvecklas och driva teknik utvecklingen framåt.
Sedan kan en högst relevant fråga vara hur en genomsitts Amerikan redan upp över öronen med skulder för både hus och bil skall hitta nya krediter för att köpa en ny hybrid eller elbil? Första prio här kommande år kommer inte bli att köpa nya kapitalvaror som bil utan helt enkelt behålla det man har, ev down size, och betala av de skulder man har så snabbt som möjligt.
För Sveriges vidkommande och givet att vi får vår olja från tre länder idag - Danmark, Ryssland och Norge idag så ser läget onekligen inte särdeles ljust ut. Vi noterade i tidigare inlägg att Danmarks nett olje export når 0 redan om 6 år eller ca 2015. Hur det ser ut för övriga två ser vi nedan:
Russia’s initial 10 year projected production decline rate is -5.1%/year ±2%. The projected rate of increase in consumption, which is heavily weighted toward recent consumption and therefore on the low side, is +0.3% ±0.8%. The initial 10 year projected net export decline rate is -8.2%/year, ±4%. Our middle case shows Russia approaching zero net exports in 2024, within a range from 2018 to 2029.
Norway is fairly straight-forward. Our 10 year projected decline rate is -11%/year ± 2%, with a projected rate of consumption increase of 0.7%/year ±2.7%.. The 10 year projected net export decline rate is -12%/year ±2.5%. Our middle case shows Norway approaching zero net exports in 2025, within a range from 2022 to 2028.
Iran’s initial 10 year projected production decline rate is -1.5%/year ± 2%. The projected rate of increase in consumption is +2.9%/year ± 1.8%. The initial 10 year projected net export decline rate is -4.9%/year, ± 7%. Our middle case shows Iran approaching zero net exports in 2029, within a range from 2020 to 2042.
Saudi Arabia’s initial 10 year projected production decline rate is -2.7%/year ±2% per year. The projected rate of increase in consumption is +4.4%/year ±2% per year. Their initial 10 year projected net export decline rate is -4.7%/year ±4%. Our middle case shows Saudi Arabia approaching zero net exports in 2031, within a range from 2024 to 2037.
The UAE’s initial 10 year projected production decline rate is -2.9%/year ± 4%. The projected rate of increase in consumption is +5.0%/year ± 5.0%. The initial 10 year projected net export decline rate is -4.0%/year, ± 7%. Our middle case shows the UAE approaching zero net exports in 2037, within a range from 2020 to 2056.
Projected net exports from all five net exporters are shown in Figure 17, with an initial 10 year projected net export decline rate of -6.2%/year ±4%. Our middle case shows the top five approaching zero net exports in 2031, within a range from 2024 to 2039.
Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average aggregate net export decline of about one mbpd per year in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/38948
http://www.scitizen.com/stories/Future-Energies/2009/03/Jeffrey-Brown-and-the-Net-Oil-Exports-Crisis/
Jeffrey Brown and the Net Oil Exports Crisis- 6 Mar, 2009
But there are important differences between now--Brown believes a depression is currently unfolding--and the previous depression that actually bodes ill for oil supplies and prices. First, instead of expanding rapidly as oil production did in the 1930s, production is now stagnating and will perhaps decline as exploration and drilling efforts continue to plummet. Second, the world today has not just millions of people wanting to become car owners, but hundreds of millions, located mostly in Asia. Many still have the means to pay and will probably continue to buy cars, adding significantly to oil demand even during this economic downturn.With supplies constrained for geologic and investment reasons, Brown expects net oil exports to continue their decline and create a bidding war among importers similar to the one that vaulted oil prices to almost $150 a barrel last summer. He thinks it is possible that the average oil price for 2009 could very well be the same as in 2008, around $100 a barrel. The average, he says, not the wild swings, are a much better indication of what people are paying for oil in the course of a year.
http://www.scitizen.com/stories/Future-Energies/2009/03/Jeffrey-Brown-and-the-Net-Oil-Exports-Crisis/
Net Oil Exports
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2008/12/net-oil-exports.html
Jeff Rubin CIBC Dec 10
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2008/12/jeff-rubin-cibc-dec-10.html
How big is Cleveland?
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2008/11/how-big-is-cleveland.html
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar