Denna bloggs favorit ekonom CIBCs Jeff Rubin kommer här med en inte så munter outlook för USAs bilfabrikanter. De goda tiderna ser enligt denna analys aldrig ut att kunna komma tillbaka till amerikans bilindustri som med detta beräknas kunna minska med över 50% vad gäller produktions kapacitet. Någon större produktions kapacitet än detta ser Rubin svårligen kan finna en avsättning framöver.
"Just as two million housing starts proved to be a bubble, so was the average 16 million
unit auto sales of the last five years. That was a product of a world of cheap oil and cheap
credit, neither of which are likely to figure in Detroit’s future (see pages 4-7).
Easy credit is already gone. The credit bubble wasn’t just about sub-prime mortgages. It
was just as much about car sales. Some twothirds of vehicle sales in America over the last
decade were debt financed."
"Between consumer deleveraging, further job losses and ultimately soaring gasoline prices, tomorrow’s auto vehicle market in the US is likely to shrink to something half its former size."
CIBC March 2, 2009 - Wrong turn
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sfeb09.pdf
Sedan January analysen är lika läsvärd den:
Reflation
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/sjan09.pdf
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