Jeffrey Browns senaste uppskattning för nettoexporten från "Top Five"

Jeffrey Browns senaste uppskattning för nettoexporten från "Top Five":

2005 23.9 mbpd
2006 23.2
2007 22.0
2008 22.5 (Estimate based on data through 9/08)

"What is interesting is a plot of average annual US oil prices versus annual net oil exports from the 2005 top five net oil exporters. Following is this graph, with oil prices on the vertical axis and with annual (EIA) net oil exports on the horizontal axis."
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/slide1.png

"This graph shows, as one would expect, a strong correlation between rising oil prices and declining net oil exports. In my opinion, the rapid decline in monthly and daily oil prices in the latter months of 2008 was primarily due to the actual and to some extent, the perceived, decline in demand outpacing the long term decline in net oil exports—augmented by selling, forced and otherwise, of long oil positions, partly due to the contraction in credit.

I expect to see a combination of involuntary + voluntary reductions in net oil exports in 2009, which will probably cause the average annual oil price to exceed the average price of about $50 that the futures market is currently showing for 2009, and in my opinion there is a good chance that the average price in 2009 will exceed the average price of about $100 in 2008.

However, regardless of short term oil price fluctuations, the real problem for the economy is going to be after 2009. In my opinion, we will not have the volume of world net oil exports necessary to power a rebound in economic activity."

http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2008/12/simple-explanation-for-rising-oil.html

nedan bla liten förklaring till Jeffrey Brown nettoexport tori (Export Land Model):

Jeffrey Brown -average oil price for 2009 $100
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2009/03/jeffrey-brown-average-oil-price-for.html