Senaste intervjun med Jeffrey Brown

Ny interview med Jeffrey Brown som utvecklat den sk Export Land Modell. Detta är en modell för att konkretisera hur genomgripande dynamiken slår inte bara när olje produktionen i ett land går ned utan när man till detta dessutom tar hänsyn till ökad inhemsk efterfrågan. Konsekvensen blir radikalt minskad export. Bra då att hålla i minnet är som sagt att IEA anger naturlig declinerate för existerande olje fält till 9% . Sant är att visserligen så går nu efterfrågan i de flesta OECD länderna ner men att detta nu med råge kompenseras av att olje efterfrågan i de olje producerande länderna ständigt ökar år från år. Det kan i sammanhanget vara intressant att veta att OPEC plus Ryssland och Mexico idag utgör världens näst största olje marknad. 60% större än Kinas hela olje konsumtion, större än hela västeuropas och 2a efter bara USA.

"Assume domestic users consume half of all the oil produced in Export Land at the moment; assume a 5 percent annual decline rate for production; and assume a 2½ percent annual increase in domestic consumption. The result is that Export Land reaches zero exports in an astonishingly short nine years."

"Using insights gained from this exercise, Brown and Foucher set about examining the possible future of oil exports from the world's top five exporters: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Between them they produce about half of the world's net oil exports. Norway and Iran are already demonstrably past peak production. Russia is now declining. Saudi Arabia has not exceeded its peak in 2005 on a sustained basis, but the jury is still out. The situation is unclear for the UAE.Brown and Foucher, for the purposes of their model, assume that all countries are at or near peak production. If the team's middle case for production and consumption holds, then net exports from the current top five exporters will dwindle to zero by 2031."

"But there are important differences between now--Brown believes a depression is currently unfolding--and the previous depression that actually bodes ill for oil supplies and prices. First, instead of expanding rapidly as oil production did in the 1930s, production is now stagnating and will perhaps decline as exploration and drilling efforts continue to plummet. Second, the world today has not just millions of people wanting to become car owners, but hundreds of millions, located mostly in Asia. Many still have the means to pay and will probably continue to buy cars, adding significantly to oil demand even during this economic downturn.With supplies constrained for geologic and investment reasons, Brown expects net oil exports to continue their decline and create a bidding war among importers similar to the one that vaulted oil prices to almost $150 a barrel last summer. He thinks it is possible that the average oil price for 2009 could very well be the same as in 2008, around $100 a barrel. The average, he says, not the wild swings, are a much better indication of what people are paying for oil in the course of a year."

Jeffrey Brown and the Net Oil Exports Crisis
http://scitizen.com/stories/Future-Energies/2009/03/Jeffrey-Brown-and-the-Net-Oil-Exports-Crisis/

Ett av de oljeproducerande länder som pga just denna dynamik nu snart (antagligen innan år 2010) kommer att se sig gå från nettoexportör av olja till att istället tvingas bli netto importör är Mexico. Här kommer dessutom senaste produktions siffrorna från landets största oljefält som återigen måste revideras ned. Allvarligt för Mexio som idag får ca 30% av sin BNP från oljan men även allvarligt för USA som idag har Mexico som sin tredje största oljeleverantör. Ett bortfall som sannerligen inte blir enkelt att kompensera för. Men det är inte den enda olje leverantören till USA som har problem. USA får även olja från Venezuela men även från detta land minskar nu exporten. I January minskade YOY Mexicos + Venezuelas sammantagna olje export med nästan 20%.

"MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s aging Cantarell oil field will produce an average of 700,000 barrels per day of crude in 2009, down from a previous estimate of 756,000 bpd, according to a presentation posted on state oil company Pemex’s website.
Pemex executives said in a presentation before Congress in January that output from Cantarell would average 756,000 bpd in 2009. Pemex also reduced its longer-term forecast for Cantarell. Output from the field is now seen averaging 400,000 bpd between 2009-2017, down from the January estimate of 423,000 bpd."
http://www.tehrantimes.com/Index_view.asp?code=190386

Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production Peaked in 2005
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5154#more

World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623