Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC. 

And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."

And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral." 

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions. 

Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included. 

However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when? 

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent. 

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guaranteesthey're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible. 
http://moneymorning.com/ob/economist-richard-duncan-civilization-may-not-survive-death-spiral/

Bill Black: Our System is So Flawed That Fraud is Mathematically Guaranteed

Bill Black is a former bank regulator who played a central role in prosecuting the corruption responsible for the S&L crisis of the late 1980s. He is one of America's top experts on financial fraud. And he laments that the US has descended into a type of crony capitalism that makes continued fraud a virtual certainty - while increasingly neutering the safeguards intended to prevent and punish such abuse.

In this extensive interview, Bill explains why financial fraud is the most damaging type of fraud and also the hardest to prosecute. He also details how, through crony capitalism, it has become much more prevalent in our markets and political system.

A warning: there's much revealed in this interview to make your blood boil. For example: the Office of Threat Supervision. In the aftermath of the S&L crisis, this office brought 3,000 administration enforcements actions (a.k.a. lawsuits) against identified perpetrators. In a number of cases, they clawed back the funds and profits that the convicted parties had fraudulently obtained.

Flash forward to the 2008 credit crisis, in which just the related household sector losses alone were over 70x greater than those seen during the entire S&L debacle. So how many criminal referrals did the same agency, the Office of Threat Supervision, make?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9JfmzUtlWM

Professor Joseph Stiglitz, The global economic situation and sovereign debt crisis

http://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/webcast/2011/10/professor-joseph-stiglitz-the-global-economic-situation-and-sovereign-debt-crisis-2.html

Steve Jobs overrated? Richad Stallman definately underrated.

MAX KEISER ON STEVE JOBS OCT 7 11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nBnXWCObiI&feature=player_embedded#!

Richard Stallman
http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Stallman

Keiser Report: Debts & Slavery

This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, talk about 'capitalist gangbangs,' JP Morgan's 'way forward,' and why 14 trillion no longer scares us. In the second half of the show, Max Keiser interviews Satyajit Das about the conservation of debt and slavery, extreme money and #occupywallstreet
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu0wDv1LJ4k&feature=player_embedded#!

Conversations with History: Niall Ferguson

Conversations host Harry Kreisler welcomes Harvard historian Niall Ferguson for a discussion of his book "The War of the World." Ferguson analyzes the role of ethnic conflict, economic volatility, and the decline of empires in making the twentieth century the most violent one in human history

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wtw6UWx_UuA

Niall Ferguson Blasts New York Times Columnist Paul Krugman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHPwYgkjU8k&feature=related

Niall Ferguson on the Pitfalls of Keynesian Economics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa3BiujaI3M&feature=related

Niall Ferguson- By 2021 There Could Be A Restored Middle Eastern Caliphate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW5BS5pscS4&NR=1

Supply Constraints and the Economy

The US has been de industrialized and has become a finance paper shuffling economy, as is the case for the UK. The US$ is soon about to lose its world currency reserve status as the currency gets depreciated to even lower levels.

The parallels are striking as to what happened with the British Empire and the Sterling after WW2.

Clearly emerging economies use of and need for base metals, and energy is quite significantly larger than the relative need for a developed OECD country. This is of course because an industrialized country is “already ready built” and all industrial capacity has been outsourced whereas an emerging economy has the need to build new from scratch. There are now 3 billion people in e.g. China, India, Russia, Brazil aiming to get the living standard we in the west have acheived and they are dead serious to get there.

Add to that phenomena the fact were facing real supply shortages relevant some base metals e.g. Zink, its estimated next coming years there will be supply deficits of some 20-25%, as well as for oil where we have reached already peak production according to IEA in 2006 and existing oil fields depleat some 6% annualy thus a real oil supply cruch can be seen already by 2013.

Teck sees start of 'structural deficit' for zinc
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/teck-sees-start-of-structural-deficit-for-zinc-2011-03-07

And yes emerging economies grow to an extent not comparable to an industrialized country. Their parabolic growth is yet to start in many cases, we have seen nothing yet. Meanwhile the oil consumtion as well as base metal consumtion trend has been downwards for years in the OECD economies.

From 2003 to 2010, China’s car sales have increased over 300%. In fact, car sales jumped 45% last year alone in China. This increase has made China the global leader in car sales.

China’s most recent Five-Year Plan calls for $50 billion to be spent on upgrading the country’s power grid and an another $110 billion on building 13,000 kilometers of high-speed railways. It takes a lot of base metals to expand a nation’s power grid, sewer system and transportation lines.

China to add 97 airports in 12 years
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-03/25/content_6563240.htm

China has another advantage ove most OECD countries. Loads of cash reserves, significant savings and an already integrated bank and goverment sector. You know that socialistioc aspect of a "functioning" capitalistic market Mt Hank Paulson fought so hard to obtain via the bailouts? In addition private debt in most developed economies is a mere fraction of that of most OECD economies. So sure they have the need to grow as well as capacity to take on more debt.

This whilst the debt saturated OECD without almost any exeption is on the verge of a financial suicide of epic propotions.

Lastly I would argue it’s not in fact the economic macroeconomic environment that dictates market price. There are a number of occasions where the economy has been booming and base metals have been severely depressed and there have been very depressed economic environments when industry metal prices has been very high relatively speaking.

This as it is in fact the capacity of supply that dictates the market price not the general economic environment as such. And as you see we soon to enter in to many years of severe supply constraints.

Then why not listen to Peter Schiffs I land analogy:

“Some people that got stranded on an island, and I think it was 6 or 7 were Asians and there was one American and as soon as they were on the island they had to divide up the jobs.

One Asian was given the job of fishing, the other one was hunting, one of them got the job of gathering fire wood. So they all had jobs, and the American was assigned the job of eating. And so at the end of the day, they would all gather around and prepare this feast and the American would sit there and eat it.

But he wouldn’t eat it all, he´d just leave enough crumbs so he could give to the 6 Asians so they could go on and repeat it again tomorrow, spend all day preparing a meal for the American to eat.

Now, the way modern economists would look at it, they would say “Well, this American is vital to the whole island economy. Without him nobody would have to fish, nobody would have to hunt, nobody would have to gather fire wood. He is creating all this employment on the island”.

But the reality is, every Asian on that island, his lot in life would be dramatically improved if they kicked the American off the island because now they would have a lot more to eat or maybe they wouldn´t have to spend all day hunting and fishing and they can lay on the beach a little bit”.

Maybye were now just about to swap a saturated, mature, stagnant OECD part of the world to the new emerging, growing economies?

But before were able to get there the toxic, ready to blow up any minute derivatives absurdity has to not only be disarmed it also has to completely be erased. That in it self sure is a challenge as the derivatives market is estimated to be a $600 trillion market and the finance sector some 10 times larger than the real economy.

The imballances, missallocation, falce price mechanisems and distortions this causes the real economy simply can not be overestimated.

Nigel Farage: 'Bombings, bailouts - what on earth are we doing?'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqKdDNM7jpQ&feature=player_embedded#at=143

Peak Civilization, Peak Oil with ASPO Italy's Ugo Bardi

Jim Puplava is pleased to welcome Ugo Bardi to the Financial Sense Newshour this week. Dr. Bardi is a professor of physical chemistry at the University of Florence in Italy, and a member of the editorial board of "The Oil Drum," a web site dedicated to energy resources. He is also president of the Italian section of ASPO. In addition, Ugo is interested in the connection of modern science with the classical world and has published one book on the ancient myth of the Etruscan Chimera (in Italian) as well as articles on the decline of the Roman Empire. This week they discuss Ugo’s fascinating article Peak Civilization, as well as current peak oil issues.
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2011/02/19/03/ugo-bardi/peak-civilization-current-peak-oil-issues

Skam på Torra land

Världens finanselit möts just nu i Davos. Uppbackade och flankerade av politiska dignitärer, föredettingar (Clinton) och wanna bees (Reinfelt) som de marionetter de är.

Clinton höll ett litet tal i dessa sammanhang där han öste lovord över Sveriges Reinfelt och Borg.

Clinton var fö mannen som skapade den nuvarande världsdepressionen efter som han var den som efter hårt lobby arbete i de politiska korridorena i USA från stor finansen som med undertecknadet av Glass-Steagall avtalet som gav dessa de verktyg de behövds för att kunna iscensätta en spekulations ekonomi utan gräns.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Act

Lägg till detta President Clintons metodiska arbeta för att se till att även de som absolut inte kunde ha råd med att köpa egna hus med lånade pengar skulle ha den möjligheten.

Bill Clinton's drive to increase homeownership went way too far
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2008/02/clintons_drive.html

För att göra situationen ännu bättre så hade Clinton vid sin sida Mr Greenspan som nu har förpassats till historien som kanske världshistoriens värsta bubbeekonom.

FORMER US president Bill Clinton emerges as the political hero in the memoirs of one of America's most powerful and influential economists of the past two decades, Alan Greenspan.

Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve chairman for 18 years, praises Clinton's mind and his tough anti-deficit policies, calling the former president's 1993 economic plan "an act of political courage".
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/greenspans-memoirs-clinton-saved-bush-spent/2007/09/17/1189881433621.html

Clinton vägrade sedan kategoriskt att utnämna rätt person till att övervaka den nu så dödliga derivathandeln. Historien om hur detta gick till kan man se med all önskvärd tydlighet i filmen "The Warning".
http://video.pbs.org/video/1302794657/

Vem behöver kärnvapen när man kan ställa upp med en sådan arsenal för att förinta en hel medelklass världen över?

Clinton praise as Sweden woos Davos
http://www.thelocal.se/31690/20110128/

Är det någon annan än undertecknad som mår illa när just en sådan man nu står inför elitens företrädare och öser beröm över sveriges finansiella läge?

Ännu mer förbryllande blir det när man sedan läser att Clinton och detta tydligen på fullaste allvar, menar att orsaken till sveriges starka finanser skall på något sätt kunna härledas till att vi uppfyller miljökraven. Istället är det ju så att svensken övertaxeras å det grövsta vad gäller elpriset samtidigt som statliga Vattenfall under senaste decennierna gått från att ha haft en andel icke förnyelsebar el på ca 1% till att idag istället ha över 50% icke förnyelsebara källor (läs fossila bränslen) som bas för elproduktionen. Vad ligger framgången i detta? Är Clinton tokig, dum i huvudet?

Vattenfall bränner upp elmiljarder, höjer elnotan för Svenskar och betalar ut bonusar
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2011/01/branner-upp-elmiljarder.html

Svaret ligger i att Clinton företräder intressen vars yttersta mål är att omvandla världens medelklass till en slavbefolkning var enda uppgift skall vara att berika den redan ofantligt rika eliten, betala skatt och ränta in i absurdum. Då blir i ljuset av allt detta Sverige en bra testing ground och Clintons insatser uppskattade av den elit som sätter agendan.

Sweden a NWO testing ground
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2010/12/sweden-nwo-testing-ground.html

Är det någon annan som tycker att man i dessa lovsångs sammanhang av den Svenska ekonomin sedan tenderar att glömma bort en annan person som i alla fall jag anser varit av fundamental betydelse för den idag så gynsamma svenska sitsten?

Faktum är att vi inte alls haft samma fina läge alls om inte vår tidigare finansminister Göran Person så grundligt, resolut och hänynslöst tagit itu med den enorma uppgiften att sanera de svenska finanserna efter vår egna helt inhemskt konstruerade bankkris.

Så Reinfedt och Borg visst har ni förvaltat detta men en stor tacksamhetens tanke skickar vi en dag som denna till mannen som helt sant i riksdagen sade "den som står i skuld är aldrig fri".

Det var kanske detta budskap Clinton skulle ha lyssnat på när han istället genom att hetsa fattiga att ta bostadslån och avreglera finans marknaden gjorde precis tvärt om. Facit på vad resultatet blev ser vi nu idag med all önskvärd tydlighet - en OECD ekonomi på historiska skuld nivåer och på randen av konkurs.

Sedan har vi ju hela den tragiska historien och kopplingen mellan Clinto och Kina.

Globaliserad till döds?
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2008/11/globaliserad-till-dds.html

Men den Svenska finanseliten tillsammans med vår Svenska Riksbank i spetsen har dock jobbat på bra under senare år för att även vi i Sverige skall drabbas hårt av en ny spekulations bubbla. Men detta har ännu inte drabbat den reala ekonomin så varför nu blicka framåt nu när det ser så ljust ut i backspegeln? Clinton - can't you see it coming..? Om någon du borde väl veta..?

Den Svenska bostadsbubblan
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2011/01/den-svenska-bostadsbubblan.html

Volker for Advisory Role

Obama jobbar vidare med att få ihop sitt team. Så här långt en mycket diger och imponerande samling kompetenser och erfarenheter. Givet det Volker lyckades åstakomma under sin tid som FED chairman så kanske alla sk guldbuggs nu bör ta sig en funderare på vart vi är på väg?

Lär av historien. Inte minst lärorikt är det att läsa på om vad som hände med de sk Hunt brothers. Ni kommer väl ihåg de som spekulerade och försökte sig på en corner på silver marknaden?

Lärdomen från detta var att så länge vi har ett fiat baserat valuta system så kommer inte guld eller silver att utan strid få tillbaka sin roll som bas för våra valutor. Att gå emot FED har aldrig så här långt visat sig vara lönsamt för investerare. Du slåss mot en motståndare som är beredd att ta till alla möjliga och omöjliga medel allt för att kunna bevara status quo.

Volcker Tapped for Advisory Role Ex-Fed Chief to Lead New Economic Panel of Outside Experts Who Will Brief ObamaBy JONATHAN WEISMAN

Article President-elect Barack Obama will appoint former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker on Wednesday to be the chairman of a new White House advisory board tasked with helping to lift the nation from recession and stabilize financial markets, Democratic officials say.

University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee, one of Mr. Obama's longest-serving policy advisers, will serve as the board's staff director, along with his duties as a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Members of the panel will be drawn from a cross-section of citizens outside the government, chosen for their independence and nonpartisanship.

The board's mission won't be to supplant the policy-making role of the Treasury Department and other agencies, but to give Mr. Obama an official forum for getting expert advice outside the normal bureaucratic channels. It will give briefings to the president. The panel, called the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, is modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board established by then-President Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, at the height of the Cold War, when officials worried that that the existing bureaucratic structure was inadequate to help the U.S. keep pace with the Soviet threat. The financial crisis has drawn similar worries that the government isn't properly organized to monitor and respond to modern financial markets. Getty Images President-elect Obama will appoint Paul Volcker to head an advisory board. For the third straight day, Mr. Obama plans to make what he calls a major economic announcement, dominating the policy news during Thanksgiving week and trying to fill a policy vacuum that has left the nation's financial markets in an uneasy swoon.

The board's tasks will be broad: to help design and implement short-term programs to jump-start the economy, raise wages and living standards and confront the housing crisis. It will also address the delicate task of bolstering Washington's oversight of the financial markets in the wake of a Wall Street collapse that has taken down many of its most venerable institutions. Obama advisers have pledged a streamlined but tougher regulatory regime that would force more transparency onto hedge funds and private-equity firms, while regulating the trading of exotic instruments such as credit default swaps that helped precipitate the current crisis.

After his election, Mr. Obama was reluctant to assert too much authority on the economy before his inauguration, worried that he would be blamed for the crisis before he had the power to resolve it, Obama aides have said. But with markets remaining fragile, the Obama team decided it couldn't wait until the Jan. 20 swearing in to begin acting to offer some reassuring clarity about who will manage economic policy next year. On Monday, Mr. Obama introduced the central figures of his economic team, Treasury Secretary-nominee Timothy Geithner, National Economic Council director Lawrence Summers, and Christina Romer, who will be chair of his Council of Economic Advisers. On Tuesday, he pledged long-term fiscal restraint while standing next to his budget director, Peter Orszag. Wednesday's event was more of a surprise, but with it,

Mr. Obama has found a place for the former Fed chairman who is largely credited with halting inflation in the early 1980s. Since the financial crisis erupted in September, Mr. Obama has leaned heavily on the 81-year-old Mr. Volcker for advice. Mr. Volcker may serve another purpose, said Martin Baily, a former Council of Economic Advisers chairman under President Clinton. He will be a counterweight to Mr. Summers, who may dominate policy making from his perch inside the White House. R. Glenn Hubbard, a senior economic official in President George W. Bush's first term, had publicly promoted Mr. Volcker for Treasury secretary. He said Tuesday that the former Fed chairman has "an unmatched record of success in leading the Federal Reserve during a period of significant regulatory change, financial innovation, and economic stresses." Advisers familiar with the team selection said Mr. Volcker's advanced age always made it unlikely he would get the Treasury job, but Mr. Obama wanted him in the White House with Mr. Summers, who, like Mr. Volcker, moved into the center of the Obama policy orbit in recent months. The board will also give a prominent post to Mr. Goolsbee, who was expected to be chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the post that went to Ms. Romer.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122767048323359165.html?mod=article-outset-box

Volker som FED Chairman:

Part 1
http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2000/paul_volker1.html

Part 2
http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2000/paul_volker2.html

Historien om bröderna Hunt:
http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com/2008/02/hunt-brothers-silver-corner.html