Jim Puplava has made a decades-long career of interviewing hundreds of notable experts on the economy, energy, precious metals, geopolitics, agriculture and other sectors that impact our future.
The outlook he has developed as a result of all this input is less than sanguine. Jim concludes that economic growth will be constrained both by world governments' chronic addiction to spending more revenue than they take in, and by the systemically-rising costs of fossil fuel-driven energy.
In terms growth, he sees political leadership becoming less and less relevant in its ability to effect outcomes. In fact, he declares the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies than central bank interest rates. In his words, ""oil is the new Federal Funds rate"".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sd3T4evSmQ
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lördag 21 juli 2012
lördag 30 juli 2011
The Ultimate Currency
In November 2008 IEA published this review. What was unique was the fact that they for the very first time had evaluated the oil supply situation. All earlier "analysis" always had focused on the demand side and then supply simply in the analysis had been adjusted to accommodate for these numbers. Not this time. What then became evident was the fact that it is not oil demand destruction that can become an issue for the markets, rather it is from now on all about oil supply destruction.
The prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275
Lets repeat that "Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline".
Getting that amount of new oil online obvious is a huge challenge. An even bigger challenge however is the fact this is oil that is not possible to bring on line in the first place.
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made.
http://www.oildecline.com/
In the midst of the ongoing finance debacle this issue has been completely ignored by analyst and mainstream media. Then also let's acknowledge the fact oil demand is not flat today rather world oil demand is expected to increase some 1.6%.
"On the demand picture, the report provided the IEA’s first forecasts for next year, suggesting that world demand for crude will rise 1.6 per cent, entirely because of growth in the developing world, particularly Asia. While demand in industrialized countries is forecast to fall 0.3 per cent, this will be more than counterbalanced by growth of 3.6 per cent in the rest of the world."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/67b72974-ad27-11e0-a24e-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F67b72974-ad27-11e0-a24e-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fanyforum.se%2Foljesnack#axzz1SEWENjhz
Then important to note is the fact that you need to differentiate between declining future oil production and declining oil exports. Bottom line – as the oil producing countries themselves to an increasing extent use more and more of the oil they produce for their domestic needs less oil then is exported. Combine the oil producing countries in Russia, OPEC and Mexico and you have an oil market twice as large as the Chinese oil consumption. Thus the phase at witch oil exports declines is very much more aggressive than the pace at which oil production declines.
If the team's middle case for production and consumption holds, then net exports from the current top five exporters will dwindle to zero by 2031.
http://scitizen.com/future-energies/jeffrey-brown-and-the-net-oil-exports-crisis_a-14-2559.html
This IS the reason our current monetary system where money is created as debt has become totally unsustainable. Debt in order to be able to pay it back requires economic growth. With less available oil economic growth is not possible. Exit debt based monetary system.
Regardless then of what new system that will be introduced to replace it, gold base, fiat etc in all cases the fundamental underlying real currency in fact is oil. This as ALL economic activity depends on it.
The prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275
Lets repeat that "Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline".
Getting that amount of new oil online obvious is a huge challenge. An even bigger challenge however is the fact this is oil that is not possible to bring on line in the first place.
Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in 1964 and has followed a steady decline since. According to industry consultants IHS Energy, 90% of all known reserves are now in production, suggesting that few major discoveries remain to be made.
http://www.oildecline.com/
In the midst of the ongoing finance debacle this issue has been completely ignored by analyst and mainstream media. Then also let's acknowledge the fact oil demand is not flat today rather world oil demand is expected to increase some 1.6%.
"On the demand picture, the report provided the IEA’s first forecasts for next year, suggesting that world demand for crude will rise 1.6 per cent, entirely because of growth in the developing world, particularly Asia. While demand in industrialized countries is forecast to fall 0.3 per cent, this will be more than counterbalanced by growth of 3.6 per cent in the rest of the world."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/67b72974-ad27-11e0-a24e-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F67b72974-ad27-11e0-a24e-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fanyforum.se%2Foljesnack#axzz1SEWENjhz
Then important to note is the fact that you need to differentiate between declining future oil production and declining oil exports. Bottom line – as the oil producing countries themselves to an increasing extent use more and more of the oil they produce for their domestic needs less oil then is exported. Combine the oil producing countries in Russia, OPEC and Mexico and you have an oil market twice as large as the Chinese oil consumption. Thus the phase at witch oil exports declines is very much more aggressive than the pace at which oil production declines.
If the team's middle case for production and consumption holds, then net exports from the current top five exporters will dwindle to zero by 2031.
http://scitizen.com/future-energies/jeffrey-brown-and-the-net-oil-exports-crisis_a-14-2559.html
This IS the reason our current monetary system where money is created as debt has become totally unsustainable. Debt in order to be able to pay it back requires economic growth. With less available oil economic growth is not possible. Exit debt based monetary system.
Regardless then of what new system that will be introduced to replace it, gold base, fiat etc in all cases the fundamental underlying real currency in fact is oil. This as ALL economic activity depends on it.
fredag 17 december 2010
Matthew Simmons Discusses BP's Oil Leak in Gulf of Mexico
Matt Simmons probably the most knowleagble oil "person" there was and his view about the BP oil spill. Unfortunately Mr Simmons just recently died, drowned in his bath tub after having gotten a heart attack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwX9RXFRJD4&translated=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwX9RXFRJD4&translated=1
lördag 31 januari 2009
Oljan tillgång och efterfrågan
Rekomenderad läsning om olje supply/demand tug of war signerad Reflexions of Reed.
http://reflexions-of-red.blogspot.com/2009/01/gar-det-utfor-harifran.html
http://reflexions-of-red.blogspot.com/2009/01/gar-det-utfor-harifran.html
torsdag 27 november 2008
Elefanten i vardagsrummet
IEA: "Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest producer throughout the projection period, its output climbing from 10.2 mb/d in 2007 to 15.6 mb/d in 2030.
ace, TOD: "There remains the secrecy of Saudi Arabia's real production capacity which may help extend the C&C production plateau. However, I am assuming that Saudi Arabia's C&C production was pushed to its maximum limit on Jul 2008 at 9.7 mbd. Future Saudi Arabia capacity additions from Khursaniyah, Shaybah and Khurais will only offset declines from other fields, rather than increase production capacity. "
www.theoildrum.com/node/4740/431482
IEA: "Non-OPEC conventional oil production is already at plateau and is projected to start to decline by around the middle of the next decade"
Man kan ju sedan göra en overlay med Maxwells förutsägelser där vi ni då enligt IEA skulle begfinna oss i fas 2:
"Charles Maxwell, a well-respected senior analyst at Connecticut-based brokerage Weeden & Co., suggests that the result of all this will be that “a new world economy will arrive in three waves” over the next 25 years.
Wave one of this process was the run-up to US$140. Maxwell earlier this decade called for oil to hit US$60 a barrel. Speculators took it way past that, obviously.
But wave No. 2, which Maxwell originally predicted would take oil above US$100 for the first time, will arrive when non-OPEC production peaks, sometime before 2012 (a bit before van der Veer’s prediction that the OECD will peak in 2015). During this period, the world will be extremely reliant on the oil output of just five or six countries: Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Venezuela. But even the mighty OPEC will peak some day.
This third wave, which Maxwell expects by 2020, will result in a final surge in oil prices. Global production will go into gradual, permanent, long-term decline, bringing the hydrocarbon era to a close.
According to Maxwell, governments will have to address the issue of replacing oil, and energy in general, and that will “become the principal economic and political preoccupation of the rest of the century.”
Maxwell puts oilsands operators at the top of what he calls his peak-oil portfolio: a list of stocks he says will do well in the years ahead as oil depletion begins to outpace new supply. “Any company that has 30 years of oil on the books, as these companies do, is set to do well in the new world ahead,” says Maxwell. It’s an idea that may be going more mainstream.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gates were recently given a tour of the oilsands by Murray Edwards, vice-chairman of the board of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., and it’s speculated that they were doing due diligence on Maxwell’s idea."
Charles Maxwell is known as the “Dean of Energy Analysts,” following decades working on Wall Street and for Mobil Corp. before the XOM deal. As global oil consumption rises and oil production peaks and ebbs, prices will shoot higher — a lot higher, says Maxwell, senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Conn. Maxwell forecasts $180 oil by 2015, and $300 a barrel by 2020. And at those prices, could rationing be far off in the future? Plus, check in with Tech Ticker later to get Maxwell’s take on smart oil investing plays as oil reaches the bottom of the barrel. Non OPEC peak 2010 Big listed oil companys peak 2011-2012 Global Oil Peak 2015 http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/11413/High-Oil-Prices-You-Ain
ace, TOD: "There remains the secrecy of Saudi Arabia's real production capacity which may help extend the C&C production plateau. However, I am assuming that Saudi Arabia's C&C production was pushed to its maximum limit on Jul 2008 at 9.7 mbd. Future Saudi Arabia capacity additions from Khursaniyah, Shaybah and Khurais will only offset declines from other fields, rather than increase production capacity. "
www.theoildrum.com/node/4740/431482
IEA: "Non-OPEC conventional oil production is already at plateau and is projected to start to decline by around the middle of the next decade"
Man kan ju sedan göra en overlay med Maxwells förutsägelser där vi ni då enligt IEA skulle begfinna oss i fas 2:
"Charles Maxwell, a well-respected senior analyst at Connecticut-based brokerage Weeden & Co., suggests that the result of all this will be that “a new world economy will arrive in three waves” over the next 25 years.
Wave one of this process was the run-up to US$140. Maxwell earlier this decade called for oil to hit US$60 a barrel. Speculators took it way past that, obviously.
But wave No. 2, which Maxwell originally predicted would take oil above US$100 for the first time, will arrive when non-OPEC production peaks, sometime before 2012 (a bit before van der Veer’s prediction that the OECD will peak in 2015). During this period, the world will be extremely reliant on the oil output of just five or six countries: Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Venezuela. But even the mighty OPEC will peak some day.
This third wave, which Maxwell expects by 2020, will result in a final surge in oil prices. Global production will go into gradual, permanent, long-term decline, bringing the hydrocarbon era to a close.
According to Maxwell, governments will have to address the issue of replacing oil, and energy in general, and that will “become the principal economic and political preoccupation of the rest of the century.”
Maxwell puts oilsands operators at the top of what he calls his peak-oil portfolio: a list of stocks he says will do well in the years ahead as oil depletion begins to outpace new supply. “Any company that has 30 years of oil on the books, as these companies do, is set to do well in the new world ahead,” says Maxwell. It’s an idea that may be going more mainstream.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gates were recently given a tour of the oilsands by Murray Edwards, vice-chairman of the board of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., and it’s speculated that they were doing due diligence on Maxwell’s idea."
Charles Maxwell is known as the “Dean of Energy Analysts,” following decades working on Wall Street and for Mobil Corp. before the XOM deal. As global oil consumption rises and oil production peaks and ebbs, prices will shoot higher — a lot higher, says Maxwell, senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Conn. Maxwell forecasts $180 oil by 2015, and $300 a barrel by 2020. And at those prices, could rationing be far off in the future? Plus, check in with Tech Ticker later to get Maxwell’s take on smart oil investing plays as oil reaches the bottom of the barrel. Non OPEC peak 2010 Big listed oil companys peak 2011-2012 Global Oil Peak 2015 http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/11413/High-Oil-Prices-You-Ain
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