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onsdag 12 september 2012
Why Software Is Eating The World
This week, Hewlett-Packard (where I am on the board) announced that it is exploring jettisoning its struggling PC business in favor of investing more heavily in software, where it sees better potential for growth. Meanwhile, Google plans to buy up the cellphone handset maker Motorola Mobility. Both moves surprised the tech world. But both moves are also in line with a trend I've observed, one that makes me optimistic about the future growth of the American and world economies, despite the recent turmoil in the stock market.
In short, software is eating the world.:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460.html
Big Data is Creating A Digital Nervous System
What does it mean to have a digital nervous system? The key trait is to make an organization’s feedback loop entirely digital. That is, a direct connection from sensing and monitoring inputs through to product outputs. That’s straightforward on the web. It’s getting increasingly easier in retail. Perhaps the biggest shifts in our world will come as sensors and robotics bring the advantages web companies have now to domains such as industry, transport, and the military.
The reach of digital nervous system has grown steadily over the past 30 years, and each step brings gains in agility and flexibility, along with an order of magnitude more data. First, from specific application programs to general business use with the PC. Then, direct interaction over the web. Mobile adds awareness of time and place, along with instant notification. The next step, to cloud, breaks down data silos and adds storage and compute elasticity through cloud computing. Now, we’re integrating smart agents, able to act on our behalf, and connections to the real world through sensors and automation.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/oreillymedia/2012/09/04/big-data-is-creating-a-digital-nervous-system/2/
The reach of digital nervous system has grown steadily over the past 30 years, and each step brings gains in agility and flexibility, along with an order of magnitude more data. First, from specific application programs to general business use with the PC. Then, direct interaction over the web. Mobile adds awareness of time and place, along with instant notification. The next step, to cloud, breaks down data silos and adds storage and compute elasticity through cloud computing. Now, we’re integrating smart agents, able to act on our behalf, and connections to the real world through sensors and automation.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/oreillymedia/2012/09/04/big-data-is-creating-a-digital-nervous-system/2/
tisdag 11 september 2012
The Market Is Expecting $850 Billion NEW QE
Last week we discussed what the expectations were for Draghi's OMT - approximately EUR250bn - which coincidentally provided cover for the rest of the year (conditionally) for the entire new issuance of the European Union. Based on EURUSD's recent exuberance - something we saw ahead of QE1 and QE2 - the market is now more than primed for some serious USD debasement. The current EURUSD of 1.2850 implies a Fed-to-ECB balance sheet ratio around 1.11x. If we assume the ECB wil not have to fire its conditional bazooka (of which is priced in 100% likelihood of EUR250bn), then the Fed is expected to conjure a monetization scheme of around USD580bn - anything less would be a disappointment to the market. However, if we assume the ECB will be doing it's bond-buying monetization thing - as per the equity market's expectations - then the Fed will need to come to the table with a bag of swag around USD850bn in order to debase the USD just enough to regain some hope. It seems like the market has priced in a great deal of monetary policy exuberance - especially considering how 'confident' consumers appear to be.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-expecting-850-billion-new-qe
and if they don't...
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jeff-christian/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/market-expecting-850-billion-new-qe
and if they don't...
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jeff-christian/
måndag 10 september 2012
tisdag 24 juli 2012
Barclays PLC : Risk Of Global Food Price Inflation Grows On US Drought
LONDON--The risk of another wave of global food price inflation is growing fast, Barclays PLC (BCS) said Wednesday, as U.S. grains and soybeans prices trade within touching distance of all-time highs, due to the nation's worst drought in 56 years, which is massively reducing harvest expectations.
Bad weather in Black Sea grain-exporting regions, a poor start to the Indian monsoons and an incipient El Nino are all adding to weather concerns, the bank said, which suggests that physical tightness could spread from U.S. corn and soybeans to many other regions and crops in coming months.
Rising agricultural commodity prices have sparked severe bouts of food price inflation twice in the past few years, Barclays said, with food riots occurring in many parts of the world in 2007-8 and also contributing to unrest in the Middle East last year.
Now the potential for further production downgrades, strong demand from major food importers and sharply rising input costs all suggest there is significant price upside ahead, Barclays added, especially in wheat, corn and soybeans futures.
http://www.4-traders.com/BARCLAYS-PLC-9583556/news/Barclays-PLC-Risk-Of-Global-Food-Price-Inflation-Grows-On-US-Drought-14419805/
Bad weather in Black Sea grain-exporting regions, a poor start to the Indian monsoons and an incipient El Nino are all adding to weather concerns, the bank said, which suggests that physical tightness could spread from U.S. corn and soybeans to many other regions and crops in coming months.
Rising agricultural commodity prices have sparked severe bouts of food price inflation twice in the past few years, Barclays said, with food riots occurring in many parts of the world in 2007-8 and also contributing to unrest in the Middle East last year.
Now the potential for further production downgrades, strong demand from major food importers and sharply rising input costs all suggest there is significant price upside ahead, Barclays added, especially in wheat, corn and soybeans futures.
http://www.4-traders.com/BARCLAYS-PLC-9583556/news/Barclays-PLC-Risk-Of-Global-Food-Price-Inflation-Grows-On-US-Drought-14419805/
lördag 18 februari 2012
Gold as money a terrible misstake
In a world where fiat currencys are in the process of beeing debased as we speak it may seem they are keeping up their value as the relationship vs another fiat currency may not change that much overtime as they all and together go down in a downwards spiral valuation vice.
In such a world the relative value of commodeties such as e.g. gold is a good investment. This as for instance gold maintains its purchasing value over time and thus protects wealth.
Bottom line and key here is that the driver when Gold is increasing in value is that what actually is happening is that currencys are loosing in purchasing power relative everything else.
"after The Fed’s creation, from 1913 to 2008 (95 years), the value of the dollar, relative to the Consumer Price Index, decreased by 95%. A dollar could buy 95% fewer goods in 2008 than in 1913. Thus, if in 1913, you sat on your savings pile of $1,000,000 for 95 years, it would then be worth only $50,000 in purchasing power (it will have depreciated in value by 95%). One would now need to pay about 20X more than J.P. Morgan for one’s bread.
Ask my mother how much the price of milk has increased just in the last ten years alone.In other words, the value of the dollar remained extremely stable for 150 years, then The Fed was created in order to "stabilize the value of the dollar" and the result has been a 95% devaluation of the dollar in less than 100 years following its creation.
Below is a graph of this history, which I’ve marked with the year 1913 so you can see the change. The graph is also marked with the years of decoupling from the gold standard, as no examination of dollar value would be sound without such mention."
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/voorhees1.1.1.html
No wander people now are turning to hard assets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umSZOKNHY-M&feature=player_embedded
Question then is how should our monetary system be reformed in order to mend
thise issues?
Clear is we must not make the misstake and base a new monetary system on a gold standard because:
in a world ruled by the wealthy money is defines as wealth (e.g. gold)
In a world ruled by the bankers (as we have today) money is defined as credit
In a world ruled by the people and for the people money is defined by law.
The underlying reason for the financial crisis we now see unfolding in all the OECD countries is based on the fact money today is created as debt and as debt saturation now has reached completely unsustainable levels in ALL parts of our society, (private as well as goverment) the economy is now set up for a real crash as we now can
witness there are basically only two options awailabe for the current establishement to try to solve the challange of over in debt ness.
One is austerity to an extent never in fact seen before (the European prefered solution it seems) or extensive money printing as prefered by the US where today ALL of the tax generating incom on an annual basis (some 2 $trillion) is used to back stop new money printing.
Un sustainable as real and viable economic recovery never has been made successfull by reducing a populations standard of living to more or less a stone age level and as getting in to more debt in order to pay off interest of old debt that not is annualised never was a good idea.
Here more about the real viable alternativ to our current debt based system:
Max Keiser interviews Bill Still
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGEPqe7DwLc
Stephen Zarlenga works with Rep. Kucinich on The American Monetary Act, designed to resolve the banking crisis. This clip from a longer film defines 3 steps: In addition to nationalizing the Fed. and removing the power of banks to
create money as debt out of thin air, the Act reminds us of the Constitution, Article I, Sec. 8, that states that our government has the sovereign power to issue money and spend it into circulation. Whatever you think about point 3 - the government could not possibly do any worse than the banks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_kbyAl3-AM&feature=related
In the above Zarlenga discusses the FED relationship vs the Treasurie but rest assured the same kind of issues prevails relative how now central banks act in Europe. Listen here to what proffessor Hudson says at 06:30 about real choises and also at 09:30 about the Maastricht criteria and the ability of European Central Banks to act as Central banks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HWPxQV9FFgu
Then regarding preciouse metals you then also need to understand the history e.g. as Gold in 1933 actually was confiscated and owning gold by US citicens not allowed again until 1971
You also need to know Silver was included in these events:
1934: In accordance to the Silver Purchase Act of 1934, U.S. President Roosevelt issued executive order No. 6814 to confiscate and nationalize silver, and outlawing private ownership of quantities more than 500 troy ounces.
March 6, 1933: To curb mass panics and bank runs, President Roosevelt declared a four-day Bank Holiday to stop hoarding and export of gold and silver. The "Emergency Banking Act" passed on Day 3 shut down banks, which needed to be deemed "financially secure" to be reopened.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/us-silver-history-idUSTRE73O13O20110425
Gold Confiscation: Could it Happen Again?
People who scoff at the suggestion that the government might restrict private gold ownership should remember that many other countries have restrictions on (or absolute prohibitions against) private gold ownership. They should also remember that, in 1933, Franklin Delano Roosevelt dealt with a monetary and banking crisis by confiscating all privately owned gold; paying for the gold at $20.67 per ounce; immediately devaluing the dollar by 40 percent; and setting the price of gold at $35.00 per ounce. At a single stroke, Roosevelt increased the government's gold assets, stabilized the monetary system and increased wholesale prices by more than 33 percent. However, he also inflicted losses of 40 percent on gold owners and stripped them of the gold that they saved to insure their financial futures.
http://www.blanchardonline.com/beru/confiscation_again.php
Sure is we now have a real monetary crisis world wide and if you want a world where money then in some form would be backed by gold well then what happened above sure could happen again.
By the way there are other ways in order to revalue an asset e.g. by introducing new trading limits and restrictions. In that regards the story about the Hunt brothers sure is worth while reading.
The Hunt Brothers Silver Corner
http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com/2008/02/hunt-brothers-silver-corner.html
In the mean time more and more people are now waking up to the fact our current monetary and fianancial system simply isen't worth saving:
The loan sharks are now beating up a poor viktim as an example for all the others
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2012/02/loan-sharks-are-now-beating-up-poor.html
In such a world the relative value of commodeties such as e.g. gold is a good investment. This as for instance gold maintains its purchasing value over time and thus protects wealth.
Bottom line and key here is that the driver when Gold is increasing in value is that what actually is happening is that currencys are loosing in purchasing power relative everything else.
"after The Fed’s creation, from 1913 to 2008 (95 years), the value of the dollar, relative to the Consumer Price Index, decreased by 95%. A dollar could buy 95% fewer goods in 2008 than in 1913. Thus, if in 1913, you sat on your savings pile of $1,000,000 for 95 years, it would then be worth only $50,000 in purchasing power (it will have depreciated in value by 95%). One would now need to pay about 20X more than J.P. Morgan for one’s bread.
Ask my mother how much the price of milk has increased just in the last ten years alone.In other words, the value of the dollar remained extremely stable for 150 years, then The Fed was created in order to "stabilize the value of the dollar" and the result has been a 95% devaluation of the dollar in less than 100 years following its creation.
Below is a graph of this history, which I’ve marked with the year 1913 so you can see the change. The graph is also marked with the years of decoupling from the gold standard, as no examination of dollar value would be sound without such mention."
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/voorhees1.1.1.html
No wander people now are turning to hard assets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umSZOKNHY-M&feature=player_embedded
Question then is how should our monetary system be reformed in order to mend
thise issues?
Clear is we must not make the misstake and base a new monetary system on a gold standard because:
in a world ruled by the wealthy money is defines as wealth (e.g. gold)
In a world ruled by the bankers (as we have today) money is defined as credit
In a world ruled by the people and for the people money is defined by law.
The underlying reason for the financial crisis we now see unfolding in all the OECD countries is based on the fact money today is created as debt and as debt saturation now has reached completely unsustainable levels in ALL parts of our society, (private as well as goverment) the economy is now set up for a real crash as we now can
witness there are basically only two options awailabe for the current establishement to try to solve the challange of over in debt ness.
One is austerity to an extent never in fact seen before (the European prefered solution it seems) or extensive money printing as prefered by the US where today ALL of the tax generating incom on an annual basis (some 2 $trillion) is used to back stop new money printing.
Un sustainable as real and viable economic recovery never has been made successfull by reducing a populations standard of living to more or less a stone age level and as getting in to more debt in order to pay off interest of old debt that not is annualised never was a good idea.
Here more about the real viable alternativ to our current debt based system:
Max Keiser interviews Bill Still
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGEPqe7DwLc
Stephen Zarlenga works with Rep. Kucinich on The American Monetary Act, designed to resolve the banking crisis. This clip from a longer film defines 3 steps: In addition to nationalizing the Fed. and removing the power of banks to
create money as debt out of thin air, the Act reminds us of the Constitution, Article I, Sec. 8, that states that our government has the sovereign power to issue money and spend it into circulation. Whatever you think about point 3 - the government could not possibly do any worse than the banks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_kbyAl3-AM&feature=related
In the above Zarlenga discusses the FED relationship vs the Treasurie but rest assured the same kind of issues prevails relative how now central banks act in Europe. Listen here to what proffessor Hudson says at 06:30 about real choises and also at 09:30 about the Maastricht criteria and the ability of European Central Banks to act as Central banks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HWPxQV9FFgu
Then regarding preciouse metals you then also need to understand the history e.g. as Gold in 1933 actually was confiscated and owning gold by US citicens not allowed again until 1971
You also need to know Silver was included in these events:
1934: In accordance to the Silver Purchase Act of 1934, U.S. President Roosevelt issued executive order No. 6814 to confiscate and nationalize silver, and outlawing private ownership of quantities more than 500 troy ounces.
March 6, 1933: To curb mass panics and bank runs, President Roosevelt declared a four-day Bank Holiday to stop hoarding and export of gold and silver. The "Emergency Banking Act" passed on Day 3 shut down banks, which needed to be deemed "financially secure" to be reopened.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/us-silver-history-idUSTRE73O13O20110425
Gold Confiscation: Could it Happen Again?
People who scoff at the suggestion that the government might restrict private gold ownership should remember that many other countries have restrictions on (or absolute prohibitions against) private gold ownership. They should also remember that, in 1933, Franklin Delano Roosevelt dealt with a monetary and banking crisis by confiscating all privately owned gold; paying for the gold at $20.67 per ounce; immediately devaluing the dollar by 40 percent; and setting the price of gold at $35.00 per ounce. At a single stroke, Roosevelt increased the government's gold assets, stabilized the monetary system and increased wholesale prices by more than 33 percent. However, he also inflicted losses of 40 percent on gold owners and stripped them of the gold that they saved to insure their financial futures.
http://www.blanchardonline.com/beru/confiscation_again.php
Sure is we now have a real monetary crisis world wide and if you want a world where money then in some form would be backed by gold well then what happened above sure could happen again.
By the way there are other ways in order to revalue an asset e.g. by introducing new trading limits and restrictions. In that regards the story about the Hunt brothers sure is worth while reading.
The Hunt Brothers Silver Corner
http://fskrealityguide.blogspot.com/2008/02/hunt-brothers-silver-corner.html
In the mean time more and more people are now waking up to the fact our current monetary and fianancial system simply isen't worth saving:
The loan sharks are now beating up a poor viktim as an example for all the others
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2012/02/loan-sharks-are-now-beating-up-poor.html
torsdag 26 januari 2012
Penser pekar ut den bästa investeringen
"De enda familjer som har kvar sin förmögenhet efter 20 generationer är de som äger mark. Det gäller alltid och i hela världen.”
http://di.se/Artiklar/2011/12/15/253835/Penser-Fysiskt-guld-en-livforsakring/
Hyllad reportagebok om den svenska adeln.»Mitt eget intresse för den markägande adeln uppstod när jag upptäckte att denna grupp var mycket mer levande än sitt rykte, och då inte bara i form av spöken. Den här boken spänner mellan en allmänt spridd uppfattning och känsla av att lantadeln är ett fruset och fattigt gäng på fallrepet, och en upptäckt att de tvärtom på flera håll är en seg, slug, rik och politiskt potent grupp av framgångsrika lantbruksföretagare och politiska lobbyister.« Vad har Brideshead Revisited, Evelyn Waughs roman om bortdöende engelsk adel (och kanske världens bästa TV-serie) med familjestriden på Erstavik utanför Stockholm att göra? Hur mycket som helst, skriver Björn af Kleen i sin reportagebok Jorden de ärvde. Den engelska adeln dog aldrig bort, inte den svenska heller. Stigande markpriser, sänkta skatter och återupprättat rykte har inneburit en ny skördetid för de svenska jordägarna. Hur gick det egentligen till när den svenska adeln överlevde både industrialismen och demokratin, vad bråkar de om på Erstavik och varför köpte egentligen Göran Persson Torp?
http://www.bokia.se/jorden-de-arvde-4303710?gclid=CLWNxubR7a0CFeRXmAodW2l56A
http://di.se/Artiklar/2011/12/15/253835/Penser-Fysiskt-guld-en-livforsakring/
Hyllad reportagebok om den svenska adeln.»Mitt eget intresse för den markägande adeln uppstod när jag upptäckte att denna grupp var mycket mer levande än sitt rykte, och då inte bara i form av spöken. Den här boken spänner mellan en allmänt spridd uppfattning och känsla av att lantadeln är ett fruset och fattigt gäng på fallrepet, och en upptäckt att de tvärtom på flera håll är en seg, slug, rik och politiskt potent grupp av framgångsrika lantbruksföretagare och politiska lobbyister.« Vad har Brideshead Revisited, Evelyn Waughs roman om bortdöende engelsk adel (och kanske världens bästa TV-serie) med familjestriden på Erstavik utanför Stockholm att göra? Hur mycket som helst, skriver Björn af Kleen i sin reportagebok Jorden de ärvde. Den engelska adeln dog aldrig bort, inte den svenska heller. Stigande markpriser, sänkta skatter och återupprättat rykte har inneburit en ny skördetid för de svenska jordägarna. Hur gick det egentligen till när den svenska adeln överlevde både industrialismen och demokratin, vad bråkar de om på Erstavik och varför köpte egentligen Göran Persson Torp?
http://www.bokia.se/jorden-de-arvde-4303710?gclid=CLWNxubR7a0CFeRXmAodW2l56A
fredag 7 oktober 2011
Gratis el och värme till bondgårdar
Nu i senaste nummret av Energimyndighetens tidskrift "Energi Världen" och som jag fick i brevlådan i går (se länk nedan) så kan man på sidorna 11 och 12 läsa en superintressant artikel om gården Yttergärde.
"På Yttergärde lantbruk lämnar de 65 korna inte bara mjölk. Av kogödsel produceras även 70000 kubikmeter biogas som täcker större delen av gårdens värme- och elbehov, tack vare två effektiva Stirlingmotorer"
http://webbshop.cm.se/System/ViewResource.aspx?p=Energimyndigheten&rl=default:/Resources/Permanent/Static/3da0477406024d38ab19766a88702d5f/EV4_2011.pdf
Här mer om ett företag - Cleanergy - som till verkat Stirling motorerna.
Cleanergy
http://www.cleanergy.com/chp-engines/biogas/
"På Yttergärde lantbruk lämnar de 65 korna inte bara mjölk. Av kogödsel produceras även 70000 kubikmeter biogas som täcker större delen av gårdens värme- och elbehov, tack vare två effektiva Stirlingmotorer"
http://webbshop.cm.se/System/ViewResource.aspx?p=Energimyndigheten&rl=default:/Resources/Permanent/Static/3da0477406024d38ab19766a88702d5f/EV4_2011.pdf
Här mer om ett företag - Cleanergy - som till verkat Stirling motorerna.
Cleanergy
http://www.cleanergy.com/chp-engines/biogas/
torsdag 15 september 2011
STP.TO
WebCast Event där STPs CEO Byron Lutes berättar om bolaget. Mycket matnyttigt i denna nya genomgång och den nya företagspresentationen ni kan ta del av när ni lyssnar finns även på boalagets hemsida.
Det finns nu kortsiktigt en mycket rejäl uppsida i bolaget under slutet av oktober början av november. Lyssa och ni förstår varför.
Utöver detta dock massor av annat som företaget har i pipen..
Är man ens det minsta intresserad av energi så måste man helt enkelt nu ta del av denna genomgång.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=3660800
Det finns nu kortsiktigt en mycket rejäl uppsida i bolaget under slutet av oktober början av november. Lyssa och ni förstår varför.
Utöver detta dock massor av annat som företaget har i pipen..
Är man ens det minsta intresserad av energi så måste man helt enkelt nu ta del av denna genomgång.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=3660800
onsdag 17 augusti 2011
Venezuela to nationalize gold industry
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Wednesday he plans to nationalize the gold sector – including extraction and processing – and use the production to pad the country’s international reserves.
Mr. Chavez, speaking on state television, said he would carry out the nationalization through a decree in coming days.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/latin-american/venezuela-to-nationalize-gold-industry/article2132413/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Globe%20Investor&utm_content=2132413
Mr. Chavez, speaking on state television, said he would carry out the nationalization through a decree in coming days.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/latin-american/venezuela-to-nationalize-gold-industry/article2132413/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Globe%20Investor&utm_content=2132413
tisdag 16 augusti 2011
Why is George Soros selling gold and buying farmland?
NaturalNews) Food prices are skyrocketing all across the globe, and there's no end in sight. The United Nations says food inflation is currently at 30% a year, and the fast-eroding value of the dollar is causing food prices to appear even higher (in contrast to a weakening currency).
As the dollar drops in value due to runaway money printing at the Federal Reserve, the cost to import foods from other nations looks to double in just the next two years -- and possibly every two years thereafter.That's probably why investors around the globe are flocking to farmland as the new growth industry. "Investors are pouring into farmland in the U.S. and parts of Europe, Latin America and Africa as global food prices soar," reports Bloomberg magazine (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...). "
A fund controlled by George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, owns 23.4 percent of South American farmland venture Adecoagro SA."Jim Rogers is also quoted in the same story, saying, "I have frequently told people that one of the best investments in the world will be farmland."
Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/033319_food_prices_farmland.html#ixzz1VBZRuHcD
As the dollar drops in value due to runaway money printing at the Federal Reserve, the cost to import foods from other nations looks to double in just the next two years -- and possibly every two years thereafter.That's probably why investors around the globe are flocking to farmland as the new growth industry. "Investors are pouring into farmland in the U.S. and parts of Europe, Latin America and Africa as global food prices soar," reports Bloomberg magazine (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...). "
A fund controlled by George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, owns 23.4 percent of South American farmland venture Adecoagro SA."Jim Rogers is also quoted in the same story, saying, "I have frequently told people that one of the best investments in the world will be farmland."
Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/033319_food_prices_farmland.html#ixzz1VBZRuHcD
onsdag 10 augusti 2011
Soros Dumps Gold, Inciting Fear of Plummeting Price
"George Soros, the hedge fund investor who called gold "the ultimate bubble," has divested his portfolio of nearly its entire investment in the precious metal, inciting many to fear that the price will very soon plummet, devaluing the specie-heavy portfolios of millions of investors.
Like it or not, like him or not, attention must be paid to his movements. It can be very expensive to ignore the predictions of Soros. For example, on September 16, 1992 (a date subsequently known as “Black Wednesday”), one of the investment funds of Soros sold short more than $10 billion worth of pounds sterling, profiting from the British government's reluctance to adjust its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries."
"A worldwide devaluation of gold could create a ripple of financial insecurity. For example, gold is viewed by a majority of the world as a very safe and trustworthy investment, one that only increases in value. This sort of reasoned speculation has undoubtedly fueled the bullish ballooning of the price per ounce of the metal.
If the actions of Soros and other global power brokers have the effect of devaluing gold, then the legitimacy and appeal of the call of many to return to a gold standard for the value of paper currency or to abolish the Federal Reserve (and other similar central banks around the world) and its money-printing carte blanche, will be similarly devalued."
http://thenewamerican.com/economy/markets-mainmenu-45/8495-soros-dumps-gold-inciting-fear-of-plummeting-price
My View - Take it or leave it.
Seems this now is playing out for the SDRs. I mean a really fast quick SDR implementation. One can almost hear what the ECB and The FED are yelling - We need the $100 trillion NOW, and China seems anxious as well pushing to implement this new order. But I do believe that as an absoulte prerequisit in order to even be able to implement this new SDR structure gold needs to be "nutralised". This as every competing currency out there will jeopardise any such attemt and most certainly in its very early introductionary phase.
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2011/08/debt-here-debt-there-debt-everywhere.html
Like it or not, like him or not, attention must be paid to his movements. It can be very expensive to ignore the predictions of Soros. For example, on September 16, 1992 (a date subsequently known as “Black Wednesday”), one of the investment funds of Soros sold short more than $10 billion worth of pounds sterling, profiting from the British government's reluctance to adjust its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries."
"A worldwide devaluation of gold could create a ripple of financial insecurity. For example, gold is viewed by a majority of the world as a very safe and trustworthy investment, one that only increases in value. This sort of reasoned speculation has undoubtedly fueled the bullish ballooning of the price per ounce of the metal.
If the actions of Soros and other global power brokers have the effect of devaluing gold, then the legitimacy and appeal of the call of many to return to a gold standard for the value of paper currency or to abolish the Federal Reserve (and other similar central banks around the world) and its money-printing carte blanche, will be similarly devalued."
http://thenewamerican.com/economy/markets-mainmenu-45/8495-soros-dumps-gold-inciting-fear-of-plummeting-price
My View - Take it or leave it.
Seems this now is playing out for the SDRs. I mean a really fast quick SDR implementation. One can almost hear what the ECB and The FED are yelling - We need the $100 trillion NOW, and China seems anxious as well pushing to implement this new order. But I do believe that as an absoulte prerequisit in order to even be able to implement this new SDR structure gold needs to be "nutralised". This as every competing currency out there will jeopardise any such attemt and most certainly in its very early introductionary phase.
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2011/08/debt-here-debt-there-debt-everywhere.html
Swedish Rates
Swedish rates down significantely today some 15 and 25 points depending on maturity date. 10 year rates lowest ever very close to 2%. Apparently large inflows to interest funds as well as apparently worries related to French banks.
2year Swedish rates 1,35%, German 0,5 and Swiss negative.
2year Swedish rates 1,35%, German 0,5 and Swiss negative.
Why 'efficient markets' collapse - Mandelbrot
Benoit Mandelbrot, the mathematician described as the 'Father of Fractals', died on 14th October. Last year he gave this fascinating in-depth interview to John Authers, Lex editor. He discussed his now 40-year old groundbreaking critique of the "efficient markets" hypothesis and why new theories on price movement discontinuities are needed after the credit crunch. Benoit Mandelbrot was an emeritus professor of mathematics at Yale University
http://video.ft.com/v/63078298001/Why-efficient-markets-collapse-Mandelbrot
http://video.ft.com/v/63078298001/Why-efficient-markets-collapse-Mandelbrot
torsdag 4 augusti 2011
Investments as the finanial turmoil escalates - is war an option?
In order to get rid of all of this simply astonishing debt levels in all parts of the financial system regardless of where you look e.g. bank debt, shadow bank debt, private debt, municipal debt, official country debt and off balance sheet country debt there are only two ways. Either hyper inflate and/or write the debt off.
This as nobody will be able to take on all of this debt there simply aren’t enough taxpayers in the world. Real-estate will deflate but everything else will go up in price like nothing you have ever seen before.In fact the US now desperately want to hyper inflate, print more paper money, as does all other countries deep in debt but the US at the same time need to maintain the petro dollar so that "satellite states" with recourses like oil will continue to accept the dollar as payments for commodities.
In order to maintain this system the US needs a huge military capacity and thus runs on a budget deficit as today some 40% of all military expenses today is taken of the debt.If and when they don’t that will cause massive inflation as US consumers have to begin to pay 5-6 times more for gas at the pump.
Then also in the cards is that the Chinese Renmimbi will appreciate vs. the dollar further down the line again causing prices in the US of from china primarily imported consumer technology and clothing to soar.
Basically everything you'll need to stay alive will cost more. As bonds clearly is the mother of all bubbles, as interest rates increase and worldwide bond markets become saturated with bond auctions, there will only be one safe haven for investors and that is commodities.If you want to protect your purchasing power you choose precious metals that can be used as payment.
Remember gold and silver really are very puny markets very easy to manipulate and as Gold in particular only have but quite limited use other than as payment is also the easy in insert new regulation if authorities want to get rid of the notion of gold/silver as an alternative to the status quo monetary system.
Most certainly and already they have tried already e.g. by implementing trade limits on a scale never seen before. Real serious however it will become whey /if they try to demonetize as has happened before in the US in regards of silver.
Also blatant confiscation has happened e.g. 1933 in the US but this time I do believe they will do all in their power to demonetize gold basically all over the world via trading and legal restriction. Making it virtually impossible to trade or to use these precious metals as payment in any way, shape or form.
So I believe you need to focus on real hard assets that are in fact needed in the real economy and in particular where there are coming and possible supply issues vs. demand. Regardless of what will happen in the financial system people still have to eat, travel, transport, build, construct and get warmth and heat and there will be industrial capacity requesting these as input.It’s going to get crowded as investors flee in to e.g. zinc producers to protect themselves for inflation as all currencies in most OECD countries depreciate in a very coordinated manner.
In regards of zinc some 25% of the real zinc supply is expected to evaporate coming years as old mines deplete and not enough new mines are in the pipe anywhere near to compensate for that fall off.As far as oil is concerned you can soon expect a real serious supply crunch as early as by 2013 when basically there will be almost no spare capacity left. Soon what will be the real issue for the markets certainly isn’t possible oil demand destruction but rather supply destruction. On an annual basis some 6% of all oil world production is depleted. Just keeping up with this fact and maintain current production capacity will require huge efforts as well as investments on a scale never seen before.
All economic activity, transportation, construction, manufacturing as well as food production and distribution depends on oil. As our current monetary system is based on creating money, via debt, and as it’s only possible to create debt in a growing economy. It’s thus clear to see the fact that oil actually is the real currency.If prices for these recourse get to low new projects simply will not come online as they are needed in the economy well then the economy cannot faction.
They may get down there a while pricevice but longer term they will be kept at a level needed to get new production projects going. As these new project for a depleting recourse will be more complex, further away and deeper down that price overtime will increase until it will cost more to take it up than what you may earn. At that point that’s then when the real economy crash.
These commodities needed in the real economy not only will protect your worth and purchasing power and act as a hedge against inflation. As they also in many cases in fact are depleting and are not renewable thy will in addition and over time increase their worth relative everything else in the economy. Worth noting here is that gold maintains your wealth and purchasing power relative everything else in the economy. But that’s it noting more, nothing less.
For ordinary people then the implications of this is they have to pay far more than today in relative terms as part of their budget for items such as food and energy.
Last but not least one way unfortunately to clear debt is to go to war. The US certainly has that striking capability today, but not for very long..as its financial status deteriorates. So will the US be able to launch a war quick enough..? And is that really an option today? Well you be the judge.
Certainly a strike against e.g. Iran implying an escalated conflict agains china would make the oil price skyrocket. But let’s hope and pray war this time not is seen as the option history has told us is usually is in times like these.
Debt Deal – Economy Sacrificed for Military Bias
http://michael-hudson.com/2011/08/debt-ceiling-economy-sacrificed-for-military-bias/
This as nobody will be able to take on all of this debt there simply aren’t enough taxpayers in the world. Real-estate will deflate but everything else will go up in price like nothing you have ever seen before.In fact the US now desperately want to hyper inflate, print more paper money, as does all other countries deep in debt but the US at the same time need to maintain the petro dollar so that "satellite states" with recourses like oil will continue to accept the dollar as payments for commodities.
In order to maintain this system the US needs a huge military capacity and thus runs on a budget deficit as today some 40% of all military expenses today is taken of the debt.If and when they don’t that will cause massive inflation as US consumers have to begin to pay 5-6 times more for gas at the pump.
Then also in the cards is that the Chinese Renmimbi will appreciate vs. the dollar further down the line again causing prices in the US of from china primarily imported consumer technology and clothing to soar.
Basically everything you'll need to stay alive will cost more. As bonds clearly is the mother of all bubbles, as interest rates increase and worldwide bond markets become saturated with bond auctions, there will only be one safe haven for investors and that is commodities.If you want to protect your purchasing power you choose precious metals that can be used as payment.
Remember gold and silver really are very puny markets very easy to manipulate and as Gold in particular only have but quite limited use other than as payment is also the easy in insert new regulation if authorities want to get rid of the notion of gold/silver as an alternative to the status quo monetary system.
Most certainly and already they have tried already e.g. by implementing trade limits on a scale never seen before. Real serious however it will become whey /if they try to demonetize as has happened before in the US in regards of silver.
Also blatant confiscation has happened e.g. 1933 in the US but this time I do believe they will do all in their power to demonetize gold basically all over the world via trading and legal restriction. Making it virtually impossible to trade or to use these precious metals as payment in any way, shape or form.
So I believe you need to focus on real hard assets that are in fact needed in the real economy and in particular where there are coming and possible supply issues vs. demand. Regardless of what will happen in the financial system people still have to eat, travel, transport, build, construct and get warmth and heat and there will be industrial capacity requesting these as input.It’s going to get crowded as investors flee in to e.g. zinc producers to protect themselves for inflation as all currencies in most OECD countries depreciate in a very coordinated manner.
In regards of zinc some 25% of the real zinc supply is expected to evaporate coming years as old mines deplete and not enough new mines are in the pipe anywhere near to compensate for that fall off.As far as oil is concerned you can soon expect a real serious supply crunch as early as by 2013 when basically there will be almost no spare capacity left. Soon what will be the real issue for the markets certainly isn’t possible oil demand destruction but rather supply destruction. On an annual basis some 6% of all oil world production is depleted. Just keeping up with this fact and maintain current production capacity will require huge efforts as well as investments on a scale never seen before.
All economic activity, transportation, construction, manufacturing as well as food production and distribution depends on oil. As our current monetary system is based on creating money, via debt, and as it’s only possible to create debt in a growing economy. It’s thus clear to see the fact that oil actually is the real currency.If prices for these recourse get to low new projects simply will not come online as they are needed in the economy well then the economy cannot faction.
They may get down there a while pricevice but longer term they will be kept at a level needed to get new production projects going. As these new project for a depleting recourse will be more complex, further away and deeper down that price overtime will increase until it will cost more to take it up than what you may earn. At that point that’s then when the real economy crash.
These commodities needed in the real economy not only will protect your worth and purchasing power and act as a hedge against inflation. As they also in many cases in fact are depleting and are not renewable thy will in addition and over time increase their worth relative everything else in the economy. Worth noting here is that gold maintains your wealth and purchasing power relative everything else in the economy. But that’s it noting more, nothing less.
For ordinary people then the implications of this is they have to pay far more than today in relative terms as part of their budget for items such as food and energy.
Last but not least one way unfortunately to clear debt is to go to war. The US certainly has that striking capability today, but not for very long..as its financial status deteriorates. So will the US be able to launch a war quick enough..? And is that really an option today? Well you be the judge.
Certainly a strike against e.g. Iran implying an escalated conflict agains china would make the oil price skyrocket. But let’s hope and pray war this time not is seen as the option history has told us is usually is in times like these.
Debt Deal – Economy Sacrificed for Military Bias
http://michael-hudson.com/2011/08/debt-ceiling-economy-sacrificed-for-military-bias/
lördag 30 juli 2011
Jim Rogers
Today at least Rogers short positiv Dollar position not that great.
USD/CHF 0.786
Longer term he is really bearish on the dollar and as alway bull on commodeties.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71610674/
USD/CHF 0.786
Longer term he is really bearish on the dollar and as alway bull on commodeties.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71610674/
onsdag 20 april 2011
AFA
På AFAs hemsida hittar man nu en ny radio presentation med AFAs CEO Mr Leveille daterad den 13 April. Han berättar där om nuvarande status gällande pågående och om nu vilken dag som helst avslutade första samplingen på nya området EPL 3403 Marine Diamond Concession i Namibia.
http://www.afri-can.com/
Värt att notera att denna nu AFAs första sampling har föregåtts av en tidigare sampling av annat bolag som då bestog av totalt 199 provtagningar. Det var då de södra delarna av den koncession som nu AFA innehar som då var målet för dessa provtagningar.
Sammanfattningsvis kan man konstatera att detta tidigare arbete resulterade i total 8st positiva provtagningar av samma karraktär som de hittade i Namdebts angränsande område Atlantic 1 vara i fem av dessa man även kunde konstatera positiva koncentrationer av diamanter.
"Some 199 samples have been extracted and 14 of those samplescontained 23 stones ranging between 0.07 and 2.69 carats per stone, said Leveille."
"In one area in the south, 8 positive samples had anaverage size of 0.80 carats per stone which is comparable to resultsfrom the adjacent Namdeb deposit, Atlantic One."
"It is also important to note, that multiple stones were found in five samples oneof which contained six stones. This is a major indication ofconcentration and confirms that a deposit lies in this specific area,which covers 16 square kilometres. The northern area geologicallysimilar to Atlantic One covers a vast 160 square kilometres," he said.
Leveillesaid the next step is to develop the resources.
Så givet detta har man redan nu inna man nu påbörjat AFAs första egna provtagningar i området vissa positiva indikationer. Nu har AFA som målsättning att i denne den första egna och vilken dag som helst nu avslutade första provtagningen som sedan även kommer att åtföljas av ytterligare en till provtagningsrunda antagligen mot slutet av sommaren försöka förädla detta område under en 6 månaders period. Resultatet från AFAs första provtagnings arbete kommer att enligt bolaget kunna resovisas undee Maj månad.
"The first sampling has been very positive and has proven presence of diamonds. We now go backto where we have seen the deposits and explore and prospect for the nextsix months, and then with that completed we can probably envisage trial mining during the last quarter of 2011. From trial mining we switch tocommercial mining."
So in order to conclude by adding the info from this article to what Mr Leveille just recently replyed to via email we then get the following future schedule for AFA:
"we are currently carrying out a sampling program on our new concession EPL3403 and the results will be published in the coming month."
"We have made an agreement to acquire EPL 3403 and we are currently sampling it with the goal to follow up with a second sampling within 3 to 4 months after completion of the first round."
Comment - that is a second sampling at EPL 3403 possibly by August
Så bolagets VD Mr Leveille flaggar här för trialmining under slutet av innevarande år för denna nya koncession EPL 3403. Utöver detta fastslår man även att m,an kommer att genomföra även trial mining på Block J i ett senare skede efter det att första explorations fasen av nya området EPL 3403 genomförts.
"We discovered a profitable diamond deposit at Block J, which we will go back and mine, some 250km north of EPL 3403, in an area where diamonds were discovered for the first time. The diamonds are known to be smaller, but the resources there still have the potential to be over 1 million carats. We´ll do trial mining after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Potential to be over 1 million carats.
http://www.afri-can.com/en/article-published-business-live-november-25-2010.htm
- Comment trial mining at Block J after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Could this mean after first or second sampling or possibly trial mining at EPL 3403?
So the company´s plans to seek a secondary listing on the JSE – its primary listing is on the Toronto Stock Exchange´s Venture exchange where is has been listed since 1986 - seems a natural step.
The listing, he says, will likely be in the second half of 2011, as it takes some time to prepare.
In short:
- First sampling of EPL3403 started April 27 and will be finished no later than 30 days later.
- Results of sampling will be made public in May
- Second sampling of EPL3403 to start possibly by August
- Secondary listing on the JSE second half of 2011
- Trial mining of EPL3403 last quarter 2011
- Trial mining of Block J after the first exploration phase of EPL3403
http://www.afri-can.com/
Värt att notera att denna nu AFAs första sampling har föregåtts av en tidigare sampling av annat bolag som då bestog av totalt 199 provtagningar. Det var då de södra delarna av den koncession som nu AFA innehar som då var målet för dessa provtagningar.
Sammanfattningsvis kan man konstatera att detta tidigare arbete resulterade i total 8st positiva provtagningar av samma karraktär som de hittade i Namdebts angränsande område Atlantic 1 vara i fem av dessa man även kunde konstatera positiva koncentrationer av diamanter.
"Some 199 samples have been extracted and 14 of those samplescontained 23 stones ranging between 0.07 and 2.69 carats per stone, said Leveille."
"In one area in the south, 8 positive samples had anaverage size of 0.80 carats per stone which is comparable to resultsfrom the adjacent Namdeb deposit, Atlantic One."
"It is also important to note, that multiple stones were found in five samples oneof which contained six stones. This is a major indication ofconcentration and confirms that a deposit lies in this specific area,which covers 16 square kilometres. The northern area geologicallysimilar to Atlantic One covers a vast 160 square kilometres," he said.
Leveillesaid the next step is to develop the resources.
Så givet detta har man redan nu inna man nu påbörjat AFAs första egna provtagningar i området vissa positiva indikationer. Nu har AFA som målsättning att i denne den första egna och vilken dag som helst nu avslutade första provtagningen som sedan även kommer att åtföljas av ytterligare en till provtagningsrunda antagligen mot slutet av sommaren försöka förädla detta område under en 6 månaders period. Resultatet från AFAs första provtagnings arbete kommer att enligt bolaget kunna resovisas undee Maj månad.
"The first sampling has been very positive and has proven presence of diamonds. We now go backto where we have seen the deposits and explore and prospect for the nextsix months, and then with that completed we can probably envisage trial mining during the last quarter of 2011. From trial mining we switch tocommercial mining."
So in order to conclude by adding the info from this article to what Mr Leveille just recently replyed to via email we then get the following future schedule for AFA:
"we are currently carrying out a sampling program on our new concession EPL3403 and the results will be published in the coming month."
"We have made an agreement to acquire EPL 3403 and we are currently sampling it with the goal to follow up with a second sampling within 3 to 4 months after completion of the first round."
Comment - that is a second sampling at EPL 3403 possibly by August
Så bolagets VD Mr Leveille flaggar här för trialmining under slutet av innevarande år för denna nya koncession EPL 3403. Utöver detta fastslår man även att m,an kommer att genomföra även trial mining på Block J i ett senare skede efter det att första explorations fasen av nya området EPL 3403 genomförts.
"We discovered a profitable diamond deposit at Block J, which we will go back and mine, some 250km north of EPL 3403, in an area where diamonds were discovered for the first time. The diamonds are known to be smaller, but the resources there still have the potential to be over 1 million carats. We´ll do trial mining after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Potential to be over 1 million carats.
http://www.afri-can.com/en/article-published-business-live-november-25-2010.htm
- Comment trial mining at Block J after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Could this mean after first or second sampling or possibly trial mining at EPL 3403?
So the company´s plans to seek a secondary listing on the JSE – its primary listing is on the Toronto Stock Exchange´s Venture exchange where is has been listed since 1986 - seems a natural step.
The listing, he says, will likely be in the second half of 2011, as it takes some time to prepare.
In short:
- First sampling of EPL3403 started April 27 and will be finished no later than 30 days later.
- Results of sampling will be made public in May
- Second sampling of EPL3403 to start possibly by August
- Secondary listing on the JSE second half of 2011
- Trial mining of EPL3403 last quarter 2011
- Trial mining of Block J after the first exploration phase of EPL3403
STP
We have some resistance at 1.75,1.9 as well as 2.01. We just need two days of closing above these levels and we'll be charging forth like nothing you have seen before. Nothing goes straight up without any sort of consolidation, strength gathering and what have you.
Nobody that has any type of insights in this play says this isn’t a great opportunity for further valuation improvements going further as far as SP is concerned.
In the mean time let's compare STP with another oil play, PXX.TO that has roughly the same reserves, same number of shares and within a year roughly the same production (note this was BEFORE yesterday’s news regarding McKay 2 as well as Wabiskaw). One difference is that PXX today is debt free but if all goes as planned with McKay phase 1 STP also will be debt free by 2015.
Now compared with STP PXX today has more than four times the valuation. Kinda gives you an idea doesn’t it about where STPs SP is heading. Can't blame Soros and his crew for entering in to this play at this particular moment. Maybe somebody right now is trying to accumulate before the real heavy blast takes us to much higher SP levels. Time sure is starting to run out if you want to accumulate at these levels.
"Soros reports that Quantum held at January 31, 2011, 20,400,000 shares and $25,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.00% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures due June 30, 2016 ("Debentures") of the company. The Debentures are convertible in to common shares 465.1163 common shares of the ("Company") shares per $1,000 principal amount of Debentures until June 30th, 2016. The shares and debentures, if converted, held by Quantum represents in aggregate approximately 9.18%of all outstanding shares."
http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=00008HupafOULoEP60UF88AJxka:-1
This as now both macro and geopolitical events support much higher oil prices in the future than anticipated by most analysts. Or anybody here that sincerely believe the situation as it now has developed in the Arab world will be a quick fix?
Brent $/barrel 123,11
WTI $/barrel 109,10
In addition we now also of course have some STP specific events to strengthen our case:
- Senlac Phase H (2 SAGD well pairs) already in place by end of Mars 2011
- an additional 2 SAGD well pairs mid April
- Red Earth, Q2-2011, restart pilot project. Objective is to produce minimum 10.000 bpd.
- updating of the company´s reserves & resources after fiscal year end (June 30)
- McKay Phase 1 12.000 bpd construction updates (Road 80% completed, Plant and Pad site construction 75% completed, 200 person camp installed growing to 300 by mid March, all long lead equipment orders are placed and shop fabrication has begun.)
- McKay Phase 2 24.000 bpd application to be submitted during fall 2011.
- Senlac Phase J during third quarter 2011
- Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
- McKay phase 1 Production of 12.000 bpd to start Feb/March 2012
So then adding current and future production together we get this summary:
Senlac 4.000 - 5.000 bpd
McKay 1 12.000 bpd
McKay 2 24.000 bpd
Read Earth Pilot Project - to start during Q2 2011 (objective minimum 10.000 bpd)
Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
We-re now fast approaching a future production opportunity of beyond 50.000 bpd. More than a 10 fold increase vs. current production levels in sight. That´s then the production opportunity level we´re you start getting some real and serious attention from larger players in the market e.ge like neighboring Petro China and the alike
Clearly as STP develops its land the more interest from other players will be visible:
"The deal gives PetroChina 60 percent control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.´s Mac Kay and Dover oil sands deposits in Alberta. The yield from the two deposits is likely to be modest when compared with total estimates of about 175 billion barrels of oil held in the sands, the largest after Saudi Arabia.
Industry analysts said China would likely seek to expand its Canadian tar sands portfolio."
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/01/05/China-buys-into-Canadian-tar-sands-exploitation-project/UPI-22041262732184/#ixzz1DYFkW8BQ
Here is what BMO Capital markets has to say about this play:
"We believe the market is still overestimating the levels of execution risks associated with this story and believe that the company's ability to demonstrate ongoing construction progress at McKay, along with additional exploration and a potential regulatory application at McKay, could act as further catalysts for the shares in 2011."
Page .6 : Solid underlying
“Our valuation includes MacKay leases with phase 1 un risked , but future expansion value risked at 50% chance. We value the undeveloped resources at 0.75/bbl. Adding in Senlac generates a NAV of 3.49.”
From the BMO Capital analysis p5:
"We estimate that the value of Senlac and Mckay phase 1 alone is in the range of $1.80 - 2/share, implying little value is being given to the companys other development opportunities or resource upside."
That is we´re currenly valued at even lower levels than what can be considered relevant when only including McKay 1 and Senlac and that no value what so ever at these levels are assigned to either of Mckay 2 (24.000 bpd), Read Earth (objective minimum 10.000 bpd) as well as Wabiskaw (significant potential project). All of these are projects in the pipe but then we also in addition to these have all the other undeveloped land to be explored as well that at these valuation levels are assigned 0 value.
"Our un risked net asset value estimate is nearly $6/share, which we believe represents the real upside potential of the shares as the company works to "de-risk" the value of its oil sands recourses through development"
Comment - BMO is definitely using a VERY conservative Oil price of $90 in 2015. Remember that this is only 4 years from now. Net asset value should be adjusted accordingly if you believe that oil will be higher than $90 in 4 years.
Expect these above numbers to be upgraded as the new reserves and recourses update will be published in June.
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/40E0D89E-3EE1-4D8F-9747-1D65A6341567.PDF
So bottom line with a severely undervalued play (by any standard), a ten times production increase in sight, with smart money like e.g. Soros buying large chunks in to this case and with reserves and production sites surrounded by large oil plays aggressively expanding their production like e.g. Petro China expanding in the very area you are developing (McKay), and with fantastic opportunities to increase both reserves as well as production within months, you got quite a lot going for you. Don't you agree?
Suthern Pacific Resources homepage
(check out the new corporate presentation)
http://www.shpacific.com/
Nobody that has any type of insights in this play says this isn’t a great opportunity for further valuation improvements going further as far as SP is concerned.
In the mean time let's compare STP with another oil play, PXX.TO that has roughly the same reserves, same number of shares and within a year roughly the same production (note this was BEFORE yesterday’s news regarding McKay 2 as well as Wabiskaw). One difference is that PXX today is debt free but if all goes as planned with McKay phase 1 STP also will be debt free by 2015.
Now compared with STP PXX today has more than four times the valuation. Kinda gives you an idea doesn’t it about where STPs SP is heading. Can't blame Soros and his crew for entering in to this play at this particular moment. Maybe somebody right now is trying to accumulate before the real heavy blast takes us to much higher SP levels. Time sure is starting to run out if you want to accumulate at these levels.
"Soros reports that Quantum held at January 31, 2011, 20,400,000 shares and $25,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.00% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures due June 30, 2016 ("Debentures") of the company. The Debentures are convertible in to common shares 465.1163 common shares of the ("Company") shares per $1,000 principal amount of Debentures until June 30th, 2016. The shares and debentures, if converted, held by Quantum represents in aggregate approximately 9.18%of all outstanding shares."
http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=00008HupafOULoEP60UF88AJxka:-1
This as now both macro and geopolitical events support much higher oil prices in the future than anticipated by most analysts. Or anybody here that sincerely believe the situation as it now has developed in the Arab world will be a quick fix?
Brent $/barrel 123,11
WTI $/barrel 109,10
In addition we now also of course have some STP specific events to strengthen our case:
- Senlac Phase H (2 SAGD well pairs) already in place by end of Mars 2011
- an additional 2 SAGD well pairs mid April
- Red Earth, Q2-2011, restart pilot project. Objective is to produce minimum 10.000 bpd.
- updating of the company´s reserves & resources after fiscal year end (June 30)
- McKay Phase 1 12.000 bpd construction updates (Road 80% completed, Plant and Pad site construction 75% completed, 200 person camp installed growing to 300 by mid March, all long lead equipment orders are placed and shop fabrication has begun.)
- McKay Phase 2 24.000 bpd application to be submitted during fall 2011.
- Senlac Phase J during third quarter 2011
- Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
- McKay phase 1 Production of 12.000 bpd to start Feb/March 2012
So then adding current and future production together we get this summary:
Senlac 4.000 - 5.000 bpd
McKay 1 12.000 bpd
McKay 2 24.000 bpd
Read Earth Pilot Project - to start during Q2 2011 (objective minimum 10.000 bpd)
Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
We-re now fast approaching a future production opportunity of beyond 50.000 bpd. More than a 10 fold increase vs. current production levels in sight. That´s then the production opportunity level we´re you start getting some real and serious attention from larger players in the market e.ge like neighboring Petro China and the alike
Clearly as STP develops its land the more interest from other players will be visible:
"The deal gives PetroChina 60 percent control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.´s Mac Kay and Dover oil sands deposits in Alberta. The yield from the two deposits is likely to be modest when compared with total estimates of about 175 billion barrels of oil held in the sands, the largest after Saudi Arabia.
Industry analysts said China would likely seek to expand its Canadian tar sands portfolio."
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/01/05/China-buys-into-Canadian-tar-sands-exploitation-project/UPI-22041262732184/#ixzz1DYFkW8BQ
Here is what BMO Capital markets has to say about this play:
"We believe the market is still overestimating the levels of execution risks associated with this story and believe that the company's ability to demonstrate ongoing construction progress at McKay, along with additional exploration and a potential regulatory application at McKay, could act as further catalysts for the shares in 2011."
Page .6 : Solid underlying
“Our valuation includes MacKay leases with phase 1 un risked , but future expansion value risked at 50% chance. We value the undeveloped resources at 0.75/bbl. Adding in Senlac generates a NAV of 3.49.”
From the BMO Capital analysis p5:
"We estimate that the value of Senlac and Mckay phase 1 alone is in the range of $1.80 - 2/share, implying little value is being given to the companys other development opportunities or resource upside."
That is we´re currenly valued at even lower levels than what can be considered relevant when only including McKay 1 and Senlac and that no value what so ever at these levels are assigned to either of Mckay 2 (24.000 bpd), Read Earth (objective minimum 10.000 bpd) as well as Wabiskaw (significant potential project). All of these are projects in the pipe but then we also in addition to these have all the other undeveloped land to be explored as well that at these valuation levels are assigned 0 value.
"Our un risked net asset value estimate is nearly $6/share, which we believe represents the real upside potential of the shares as the company works to "de-risk" the value of its oil sands recourses through development"
Comment - BMO is definitely using a VERY conservative Oil price of $90 in 2015. Remember that this is only 4 years from now. Net asset value should be adjusted accordingly if you believe that oil will be higher than $90 in 4 years.
Expect these above numbers to be upgraded as the new reserves and recourses update will be published in June.
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/40E0D89E-3EE1-4D8F-9747-1D65A6341567.PDF
So bottom line with a severely undervalued play (by any standard), a ten times production increase in sight, with smart money like e.g. Soros buying large chunks in to this case and with reserves and production sites surrounded by large oil plays aggressively expanding their production like e.g. Petro China expanding in the very area you are developing (McKay), and with fantastic opportunities to increase both reserves as well as production within months, you got quite a lot going for you. Don't you agree?
Suthern Pacific Resources homepage
(check out the new corporate presentation)
http://www.shpacific.com/
fredag 15 april 2011
Southern Pacific to Persue 24.000 bpd expansion of STP McKay
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 14, 2011) - Southern Pacific Resource Corp. ("Southern Pacific" or the "Company") (TSX:STP) is pleased to report that the drilling results from this past winter's McKay exploration program have confirmed sufficient bitumen resources to support Southern Pacific's planned Phase 2 expansion, which is expected to add an incremental 24,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of bitumen processing capacity to the 12,000 bbl/d STP-McKay Thermal Project currently under construction. Resource Update From December 2010 to March 2011 Southern Pacific drilled a total of 38 coreholes, focused primarily on the eastern side of its existing STP-McKay project area. This brings the total corehole count to 88 inside the existing 10.5 square mile project area, which provides more than adequate delineation of the resource to understand its characteristics. The Company is pleased to report that the recent drilling confirmed the high quality of the bitumen resource identified from previous drilling programs, particularly on the east side of the project area, where the project area was less delineated. The significant feature of the STP-McKay McMurray oil sands is that they are largely continuous, both laterally and vertically, and are free of lean zones or shale barriers. The east side of the project area has now been delineated to a density that is suitable for developing well pad locations and trajectories and will exceed minimum requirements for an expansion application. GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., Southern Pacific's independent reserves evaluators, are currently updating the Company's reserves and resource estimates at McKay. Results will be available after the fiscal year end (June 30, 2011). Expansion Plans Based on the drilling results at McKay, Southern Pacific has decided to proceed with expansion plans designed to add 24,000 bbl/d of bitumen processing capacity to the project, bringing the total design capacity to 36,000 bbl/d. Southern Pacific estimates a total producing project life of over 20 years, based on the discovered bitumen to date, which the Company believes will provide an optimal project life to maximize the project value. Wabiskaw Pilot Project The existing STP-McKay project area includes another formation containing significant quantities of bitumen in place that will not be recovered using typical steam assisted gravity drainage ("SAGD") techniques. The Wabiskaw zone is above the McMurray formation, separated by about 10 metres of shale and shale-y sand. The zone contains high quality bitumen in a clean sand that averages six to eight metres thick, which is too thin for typical SAGD. The Company has recognized the existence of this zone as an incremental potential resource since the original coreholes were drilled within this project in 2009. Southern Pacific has now completed a significant amount of technical work on the Wabiskaw and believes bitumen is recoverable through thermal recovery taking advantage of conductive heat generated from SAGD chambers below in the McMurray formation, and cyclic steam stimulation ("CSS") in single leg horizontal wellbores drilled into the Wabiskaw. The Company views this opportunity as a means to extract additional bitumen with minimal additional capital or energy input. Southern Pacific expects to drill a horizontal observation well into the Wabiskaw zone in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011 to evaluate the concept from one of the first two well pads constructed in STP-McKay Phase 1. Provisions have already been made to accommodate additional Wabiskaw wellbores on the first two well pads that have already been constructed. An updated corporate presentation is now available on Southern Pacific's website (www.shpacific.com) that provides additional information and illustrations of the corehole results, expansion plans and Wabiskaw pilot project. http://www.shpacific.com/en/news/stp-2011-04-14.pdf
onsdag 30 mars 2011
Southern Pacific Commences SAGD Drilling at STP-McKay, Appoints Director
• drilling has commenced on the first steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) well pair at the Company's STP-McKay Thermal Project • Precision Drilling rig #199, a slant hole drilling rig, will be on site for approximately five months as it drills 24 individual wellbores, which will comprise the first 12 SAGD well pairs for the project. STP-McKay Phase 1 Construction • Southern Pacific completed construction of a 29 km all-season access road into the plant • majority of the earth works have been completed for the Central Process Facility (CPF) and the first two SAGD well pads • Southern Pacific constructed a 14 km, 8-inch diameter natural gas pipeline to the CPF that will be used to transport natural gas to fire the electricity/steam cogenerators and steam generators. • Source water wells and pipeline tie-ins have also been completed. • Over 90% of the major equipment purchase orders have been issued and the total cost spent to the end of February is approximately $100 million, with another $118 million of project costs fixed. • The total project cost estimate, including contingency, remains at $450 million. STP-McKay Phase 2 Expansion Plans • completed drilling 38 core holes in and around the STP-McKay project area. The core holes were drilled on time and under budget • The core hole data is currently being interpreted and results from the program are expected to be released within the next 30 days. Southern Pacific will use these interpreted results to finalize the size and timing of the STP-McKay Phase 2 expansion plans STP-Senlac Thermal Project Update • the STP-Senlac Thermal Project in southwest Saskatchewan, continues to operate smoothly • six month production rate averaging 4,150 barrels per day. • The first of two new SAGD well pairs, comprising Phase H, will be placed on production by the end of March, with the second well pair expected to come on stream about two weeks behind the first pair. • Consistent with Southern Pacific's plan, these wells should assist in maintaining the Senlac production levels between 4,000 - 5,000 bbl/d on an annual basis. • The Company expects to drill Phase J, which consists of three SAGD well pairs, in the third quarter of calendar 2011. http://www.shpacific.com/en/news/stp-2011-03-23.pdf
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