Elefanten i vardagsrummet

IEA: "Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest producer throughout the projection period, its output climbing from 10.2 mb/d in 2007 to 15.6 mb/d in 2030.

ace, TOD: "There remains the secrecy of Saudi Arabia's real production capacity which may help extend the C&C production plateau. However, I am assuming that Saudi Arabia's C&C production was pushed to its maximum limit on Jul 2008 at 9.7 mbd. Future Saudi Arabia capacity additions from Khursaniyah, Shaybah and Khurais will only offset declines from other fields, rather than increase production capacity. "

www.theoildrum.com/node/4740/431482

IEA: "Non-OPEC conventional oil production is already at plateau and is projected to start to decline by around the middle of the next decade"

Man kan ju sedan göra en overlay med Maxwells förutsägelser där vi ni då enligt IEA skulle begfinna oss i fas 2:

"Charles Maxwell, a well-respected senior analyst at Connecticut-based brokerage Weeden & Co., suggests that the result of all this will be that “a new world economy will arrive in three waves” over the next 25 years.

Wave one of this process was the run-up to US$140. Maxwell earlier this decade called for oil to hit US$60 a barrel. Speculators took it way past that, obviously.

But wave No. 2, which Maxwell originally predicted would take oil above US$100 for the first time, will arrive when non-OPEC production peaks, sometime before 2012 (a bit before van der Veer’s prediction that the OECD will peak in 2015). During this period, the world will be extremely reliant on the oil output of just five or six countries: Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Venezuela. But even the mighty OPEC will peak some day.

This third wave, which Maxwell expects by 2020, will result in a final surge in oil prices. Global production will go into gradual, permanent, long-term decline, bringing the hydrocarbon era to a close.

According to Maxwell, governments will have to address the issue of replacing oil, and energy in general, and that will “become the principal economic and political preoccupation of the rest of the century.”

Maxwell puts oilsands operators at the top of what he calls his peak-oil portfolio: a list of stocks he says will do well in the years ahead as oil depletion begins to outpace new supply. “Any company that has 30 years of oil on the books, as these companies do, is set to do well in the new world ahead,” says Maxwell. It’s an idea that may be going more mainstream.

Warren Buffett and Bill Gates were recently given a tour of the oilsands by Murray Edwards, vice-chairman of the board of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., and it’s speculated that they were doing due diligence on Maxwell’s idea."

Charles Maxwell is known as the “Dean of Energy Analysts,” following decades working on Wall Street and for Mobil Corp. before the XOM deal. As global oil consumption rises and oil production peaks and ebbs, prices will shoot higher — a lot higher, says Maxwell, senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Conn. Maxwell forecasts $180 oil by 2015, and $300 a barrel by 2020. And at those prices, could rationing be far off in the future? Plus, check in with Tech Ticker later to get Maxwell’s take on smart oil investing plays as oil reaches the bottom of the barrel. Non OPEC peak 2010 Big listed oil companys peak 2011-2012 Global Oil Peak 2015 http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/11413/High-Oil-Prices-You-Ain