Persson, Kotlikoff och Songzuo

Laurence J. Kotlikoff har skrivit tänkvärt och kortfattat om USAs finansiellt prekära situation.
Väl läsvärt i sin helhet men ffa två kommentarer sticker ut:

"The real liability facing our government is $70 trillion. This represents the present value difference between all the government's projected future spending obligations and all its projected future tax receipts. This fiscal gap takes into account Uncle Sam's need to service official debt--outstanding U.S. government bonds. But it also recognizes all our government's unofficial debts, including its obligation to the soon-to-be-retired baby boomers to pay their Social Security and Medicare benefits."

Och sedan:

"How do we pay for that? One option is doubling employer plus employee payroll tax rates immediately and permanently. That would take another 15% out of our pockets each payday. Not likely to happen.

Another option is to cut benefits. Medicare could be scaled back to keep its cost growth in line with the growth in the economy. Social Security is 20% underfunded, which means that its taxes have to go up or its future benefits have to come down. But neither presidential candidate is acknowledging our nation's true insolvency, let alone providing real solutions (such as raising the retirement age or indexing benefits to prices rather than wages). "

Slutklämmen blir då sedan detta:

"There is still time, and there are ways to put our fiscal house in order. But the longer we wait, the more likely we're going to get hit by a true financial and economic earthquake. The earthquake will come via a collapse in the market for U.S. government bonds as domestic and foreign investors realize that the only way Uncle Sam can meet his future spending obligations is to print massive quantities of money. The result will be sky-high inflation and interest rates and, most surely, a prolonged reduction in output and employment. This could happen today. It could happen tomorrow. But it will happen here just as it has happened in every other country that tried to spend far beyond its ability to pay. "

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0929/034.html

Att Obama, Volker et all har bråda dagar hyser nog idag ingen tvekan om. Frågan är nu bara vad de kommer att göra. Att det brådskar visar inte minst denna artikel av proffessor Xiang Songzuo där denne anger sex punkter som han anser USA from med nu måste åtgärda. En besk medecin för Amerika dikterad av dess långivare?

"To relieve the crisis, the US must repay its debts, and to do that it needs to live a more frugal life instead of asking others to continue lending it the money to maintain its over-consumption.

The first thing the government needs to do is reduce spending and the deficit.

Correspondingly, the US needs to cut military disbursement, stop its global expansion and the robbing of oil resources from other countries. Companies should also become thrifty and avoid highly leveraged operation. Families and individuals should stop anticipating their income to buy houses and travel globally. Instead, they should warmly welcome foreigners to travel to and spend money in the US. 　　 　　
China Should Raise Conditions
But if the US must ask China to buy some portion of its national debt, what kind of conditions and principles should China we raise?　
　
The principle should be the same as the basic principle upheld by the US and IMF when “saving” other countries in crisis: cut fiscal disbursement and both the government and the people should save money. Besides that, there are six points: first, the US should cancel the limits on high-tech exports to China, and allow China to acquire advanced technology and high-tech companies from the US; secondly, the US needs to open its financial system to Chinese financial institutions, allowing all Chinese financial firms to open branches and develop business in the US; third, the US should not prevent Europe from canceling the ban against selling weapons to China; fourth, the US should stop selling military weapons to Taiwan; fifth, the US should loosen its limits on numbers of Chinese tourists and allow them to travel freely to the US; and sixth, the US should never restrain China’s exports to the US and force RMB appreciation in the name of domestic protectionism and employment pressure."

http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=813

Hur vad det nu Göran Persson sa eg när han traffade hånleende smågling på Wall-Street? Den som står i skuld är aldrig fri?