World Oil Production Peaked in 2008

ACE på TOD har vi sagt tidigare är väl värd att följa här är nu hans senaste post:

"Non OPEC oil production peaked in 2004 and is forecast to decline at a faster rate in 2009 and beyond due mainly to big declines from Russia, Norway, the UK and Mexico. OPEC has the ability to increase production later this year and in early 2010. Although key OPEC producer Saudi Arabia peaked in 2005, it probably has sustainable annual surplus capacity of 1 mbd. Iraq and possibly Nigeria also have potential to increase production but these countries continue to have serious internal conflicts. By the time 2011 arrives, OPEC will not have the ability to offset cumulative non OPEC declines and world oil production is forecast to stay below its 2008 peak."

"There are just over 500 giant oil fields in the world, each with at least 500 million barrels recoverable oil. More support is provided for his worst case scenario as Robelius' original forecast for deepwater production was for a peak of almost 9 mbd in 2012. Now it appears that deepwater production entered a 7 mbd peak plateau in 2008 due partly to decline rates as high as 20% per year from mature deepwater oil fields."

"Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) have stated this month that, due mainly to the credit crisis and low oil prices causing significant oil project delays, world liquids production could be reduced by almost 8 mbd in five years. In five years, the production forecasts of both IEA and ExxonMobil indicate 93 mbd, including bio-fuels. Consequently, both of these forecasts are now revised down to 85 mbd in five years, adjusted for CERA's supply reduction, which is less than the 2008 peak. "

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