Jeff Rubin CIBCs chefsekonom som är en av de ekonomer jag följer noga sedan många år och jag anser att han har ett mycket bra track record ffa rörande olja. Här senaste intervjun från Dec 10:
“The enormity of the fiscal response from Washington should resuscitate growth by the second half of the year, spelling a recovery in both earnings and commodity prices, particularly energy,” he said.
“While demand destruction from the current recession has sent oil prices plunging below $50 [a barrel], supply destruction, including cancellations in the Canadian oil sands and offshore projects around the world, will see crude soar back to triple-digit territory toward the end of next year and into 2010.”
"It's important not to neglect other factors that played a key role in the global economy's recent tumble,” he said. “That includes the huge run-up in oil prices since 2002, larger even than past recession-inducing spikes, and aggressive credit tightening in China. Both that tightening and the oil shock have now reversed course.”
Any economic recovery will have to start where the problem originated, he said – U.S. housing. He said house prices may fall another 10 per cent, but that the market should stabilize as the year goes on. The cost of 30-year insured mortgages has fallen to a five-year low in the last month, and the incoming Barack Obama administration has promised further stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending.
“That, coupled with further rate cuts and credit-thawing measures, should help the economy ease back into gear by the middle of 2009,” he said.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081210.wrubin1210/GIStory/
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