söndag 7 december 2008

Oil to bounce at $40?

Hela denna sänding December 6, 2008 är intressant. Vill man välja ett avsnitt bör man definitivt inte missa första timmens sändning ca 33 minuter in och framåt, men även tredje timmen i sin helhet bör man nog inte missa heller.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

The SUV Is Rising from the Dead
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_49/b4111063900772.htm?chan=magazine+channel_what


Sedan bör man även läsa alltid lika intressanta rapporterna från CIBC med bla deras chef ekonom Jeff Rubin:

"The road back to fiscal rectitude is usually a long and arduous one of seemingly neverending
spending cuts and cascading tax hikes. But there are always tempting shortcuts, and the longer the road, the more they will be sought. Monetizing the debt by simply selling the bonds and bills to the Fed instead of the public is one such shortcut.

The resulting higher inflation allows the government to pay off bondholders with coupons that have less and less buying power every year. And while the bonds mature at par, inflation will have eroded much of their real value. And higher inflation ultimately brings down the value of your currency, which is a huge benefit, if you are the US and can get other countries to lend you their hardearned savings in your currency. That allows you to repay your lenders, like the People’s Bank of China, with greenbacks that buy a lot less yuan than they did when China first
lent you the money. And aside from stiffing your creditors, higher inflation is bound to
rub off on asset values, like housing prices, for example. That would certainly boost the
value of all those mortgage-backed securities that the Fed is now buying.

When one outcome serves so many purposes, it is likely to be hotly pursued. While politicians and financial markets fret about deflation risks, history has shown inflation to be a far more common dancing partner to massive government deficits."

November 28
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov08.pdf

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