China Property Slump

Man kan ju spekulera i vad detta kan komma att innebära. En sak är ju att de negativa effekterna på realekonomin sprider sig utan urskillnad och att inget land eller region skonas. En annan är ju vad detta kan innebära för Kinas vilja att nu fortsätta att köpa US treasuries och därmed finansiera det Amerikanska budgetunderskotten och stärka dollarn. Givet att Kina nu måste se till att de ekonomiska tillväxter fortsätter i hög takt och att denna inte kan tillåtas att minska av så kanske Kina nu snart istället väljer att sattsa sina pengar inte pa att köpa amerikanska stattspapper utan att stimulera sin inhemska ekonomi. Detta då för att om man inte lyckas hålla farten uppe på den ekonomiska inhemska Kinesiska tillväxten så kan detta leda till sådana enorma sociala spänningar i landet att konsekvensen tom skulle kunna bli att Kommunist partiet tappar kontrollen över makten i landet. Ser man dessa risker så är nog valet mellan att stimulera sin egen ekonomi eller att stödja USAs konsumenter och dollar ett enkelt val under galjen.

"House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are plunging, and the global economy may grind almost to a halt next year because of it.Construction of homes, offices and factories fell at least 16.6 percent in October after rising 32.5 percent a year earlier, according to Macquarie Securities Ltd

Building is the biggest driver of China's expansion, contributing a quarter of fixed- asset investment and employing 77 million people

"China is now at the heart of the global slowdown,” said Jim Walker, chief economist at Asianomics Ltd., an economic advisory firm in Hong Kong. “It means that global growth is probably going to be dragged down close to zero next year.”...

“The real estate sector has seen a particularly pronounced slowdown,” said Louis Kuijs, a senior economist at the World Bank in Beijing. “Real estate investment growth is now close to zero.”...

A second stimulus package to boost consumption may be imminent, the Beijing-based Economic Observer reported Nov. 24. Measures being considered include raising income-tax thresholds, higher salaries for state workers and increased subsidies for low-income groups, the newspaper said, citing people involved in discussion of the plan. China has room to spend even more than already announced because it has debt equal to 15.7 percent of gross domestic product -- compared with 75 percent in India -- a budget surplus and the world's largest currency reserves at $1.9 trillion, said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist with Merrill Lynch....

“If real estate contracts by 30 percent it doesn't matter how much the government spends on infrastructure, the economy is still going to be very weak,” said Paul Cavey, a Hong Kong-based economist at Macquarie who forecasts a 6.6 percent expansion next year. “Property is the epicenter of economic weakness.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ay7HZbCLGLEA&refer=home