Det är uppenbart att nu även Kina drabbas betydligt hårdare än vad man tidigare trott. Frågan är om en revidering från tidigare ca 12% tillväxt till 8% ens räcker. Samtidigt börjar tecknen komma på att landet kan stå inför en hel del social turbulens.
Kanske på kortare sikt det mest avgörande blir hur nu Kina givet att USAS konsumenter sitter i klistret och med nu en egen ekonomi som kanar utför hur nu Kina väljer att spendera sina pengar.
Kommer man att fortsätta att köpa Amerikanska stattspapper och därmed finansiera USAs finansiella underskott och hålla dollarn under armarna eller kommer man istället nu i allt högre grad se sig tvugna att använda pengarna för att stimulera sin egen ekonomi allt för att undvika social oro och spänningar. Kort uttryckt offras dollarn för att köpa politiskt Kinesiskt mandat i det egna landet?
"But two months into the global financial crisis, things look much grimmer for China. In fact the only recent examples of social unrest in one of the world’s main economies have come there, not in the west. Laid-off workers in factories in southern China have staged protests that had to be contained by riot police. There have also been strikes and violent protests by taxi drivers in some cities across the country. The notion that the Chinese economy has so much momentum that it has “decoupled” from the US looks like a myth.
The economic statistics tell their own story. Last week the Chinese government announced that the country’s exports fell in November, compared with a year earlier, in the first such monthly drop for seven years. There are said to be 1m new graduates looking for work. It is generally held that the Chinese economy needs to grow at 8 per cent a year to absorb all the new workers coming on to the market. But new projections suggest that Chinese growth next year will be lower than that – possibly much lower."
"For it is now clear that, far from being immune to the global financial crisis, China is very vulnerable. Its economy may not be hit as hard as that of the US. But as a poorer country – with a less resilient political system – it could suffer worse."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1ff5944-cac6-11dd-87d7-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
"Meanwhile, Wang Qishan, vice premier and leader of the Chinese delegation called on the United States to "take the necessary measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets as well as guarantee the safety of China’s assets and investments in the U.S."
"Concerned with China’s overexposure to the United States, central bank governor Zhou said policymakers should no only address the country’s slowing economy, but "restructure the development model" and prepare "for a worst-case scenario," the FT reported.
However, Chinese officials also say that any large-scale unwinding of U.S. holdings would be counterproductive, as the value of U.S. bonds and the dollar would subsequently plummet."
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/04/china-blasts-us-economic-policy-expresses-doubt-in-financial-system/
"Note also that manufacturing, which accounts for 40% of China's GDP, is slowing based on surveys of manufacturers, matching with anecdotal reports of factory closures in China's south East coast.
Industrial production has slowed to the lowest level in 6-years (output rose 11.4% in September, from 12.8% in August). While slowdown may have been exacerbated by the Olympics shut-down, it has been on a slowing trend for months.
The Federation of Hong Kong Industries predicts that 10% of an estimated 60 to 70 thousands Hong Kong-run factories in the Pearl River Delta will close this year...There is thus now a growing risk of a hard landing in China. Let us be clear what we mean by hard landing.
In a country with the potential growth of China hard landing would occur if the growth rate of the economy were to slow down to 5-6% as China needs a growth rate of 9-10% to absorb about 24 million folks joining the labor force every year; it needs a growth rate of 9-10% to move every year about 12-14 million poor rural farmers to the modern industrial/manufacturing urban sector. The whole social and political legitimacy of the regime of the ruling Communist party rests on continuing to deliver this high growth great transformation of the economy."
"Note that China is an economy is structurally dependent on exports: net exports (or the trade balance surplus) are close to 12% of GDP (up from 2% earlier in the decade) and exports represent about 40% of GDP. Real investment in China is about 45% of GDP and, leaving aside the part of this investment that is housing and infrastructure spending, about half of this capex spending goes towards the production of new capital goods that produces more exportable goods. So, with the sum of exports and investment representing about 80% of GDP, most of Chinese aggregate demand depends on its ability to sustain an export based economic growth."
"Thus, you can expect that orders of Chinese goods for Q1 of 2009 and the rest of 2009 will be sharply down dragging Chinese exports to the U.S. into sharply negative territory."
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254258/the_rising_risk_of_a_hard_landing_in_china_the_two_engines_of_global_growth__us_and_china__are_now_stalling
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