söndag 19 april 2009

INFLATION TSUNAMI

Intressanta iaktagelser signerade Peru Saxena:

"Today, there are many deflationists who are claiming that the prices will remain depressed for many years due to the weak economic activity. However, these folks should note that even during the Great Depression of the 1930’s, prices of commodities stabilised and began rising in 1933. Figure 1 confirms that due to monetary inflation in the early 1930’s, the CRB Index embarked on a secular bull-market which had a violent correction in 1937 (marked by purple arrow). Following that crash, commodities bottomed out in 1938 and thanks to the super-inflationary efforts of President Roosevelt, the CRB Index surged for more than a decade.

Contrary to popular opinion, that huge commodities boom took place despite an economic depression. Furthermore, it is worth pointing out that commodities rose relentlessly despite the fact that private-sector debt and bank lending remained essentially flat until 1945. Back then, similar to the current situation, banks accumulated large reserves but didn’t loan these reserves into the broad economy. However, from 1932 onwards, the US government borrowed so much new money into existence that prices began to rise way before private-sector credit started to expand.

A similar drama unfolded in the 1970’s when commodities went through the roof. During that time, economic activity was dismal but governments decided to tackle the recession with money creation. The net result was surging hard asset prices and mind-numbing inflation! "
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/saxena/2009/0417.html

Och här lite iaktagelser från Peter Schiff ang det Amerikanska noll summe spel som nu pågår där den privata sektorn försöker att med alla medel dra ned på sin skuldnivå samtidigt som mamma staten ökar sin till historiska nivåer.

"This brings up an oft-repeated, but oft-forgotten, point: government does not have any money of its own. It only has what it takes from the rest of us. If individuals repay their debts, but their government takes on additional debt, we are all simply swimming against the tide.

All forward progress is lost as private debt is replaced by public debt, which must be repaid by private individuals. Whatever gains individuals hope to achieve are negated by the higher taxes or increased inflation necessary to repay their share of a larger national debt."
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/0417.html

En stor stat skapar osäkerhet
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2008/12/en-stor-stat-skapar-oskerhet.html

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