Newsweek and “Cheap Oil forever”

Så har då Newsweek gjort det igen. I sitt senaste nummer har man satt på omslaget rubriken "Cheap Oil Forewer". Jämför detta sedan med mars 99 när man denna gång på omslaget hade rubriken "Drowning in Oil" där man förutsade att framtidens oljepris skulle halveras från dåvarande $10 fatet. Vad hände sedan efter detta? Ja inte blev Newsweek sannspådda den gången direkt och istället för $5 fatet så steg priset kontinuerligt under ett år tionde tills det under förra sommaren kom så högt som $147 innan det krashade. Samtidigt ökade oljekonsumtionen från de ca 28 miljoner fat per år som förbrukades 99 till dagens ca 31 miljoner fat.

Extra intressant är att faktiskt Newsweek i ett nummer mellan dessa faktiskt gick ut med ett omslag där de kommenterade det faktum att olje priset ständigt steg from 99. Omslaget var då "We was wrong". Så räkna med recykling av journalist material när det blir dags för nästa excuse när det visar sig att man även denna gång förutspått åt fanders.

Kjell Aleklett har kommenterat allt detta i ASPO. Här några intressanta take aways:

- It is interesting to note that the crash now and in 1979 came when the cost of oil exceeded 7% of global GDP
- Although the economy has crashed and steel production has fallen by 40%, oil consumption has fallen by only 3%
- When idling, the world’s economic motor needs 30 billion barrels of oil per year. The reason for this is that the number of people in the world is increasing every year and these additional people must have food. Today, there is no food produced without oil
- a large part of the world’s oil production is required just to prevent starvation
- production of crude oil from currently producing fields is declining by 6% per year, or approximately 4 million barrels of daily production. This reality is not part of Ruchir Sharma’s future vision. This reality did not exist in 1979
- The master among the illusionists is BP who, even today in its BP Statistical Review, tries to make us believe that the greatest volume of oil was found during the 1980s although we who work with reality know that this is false. The only people that BP deceives are economists and it is this illusion that entrances Ruchir Sharam causing him to declare, “This long-term price decline is due mainly to the constant discovery of new fields and greater energy efficiency, making nonsense of the idea that the world is rapidly running out of oil.”
- The reality is that we now find far less oil than we consume. During the last 10 years we have not discovered new oil to replace the 300 billion barrels we have consumed. The trend for the next 10 years is that we will find less than 100 billion barrels of oil
- Most importantly we must manage to produce more food with less oil.

Kanske lite att fundera på för Maurit Paulsen?

Newsweek and “Cheap Oil forever”
http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/newsweek-and-cheap-oil-forever

Vill man ha ytterligare lite kött på benen så rekommenderas att läsa följande intervju med Collin Champell

Interview with Colin Campbell
In short, the population only doubled over the first 17 centuries of the last millennium. But then came coal followed by oil and gas, and the population increased six-fold. These new energy sources, especially oil, the easiest, allowed the rapid expansion of industry, transport, trade and agriculture allowing the economy to expand greatly. It was accompanied by the growth of financial capital as banks lent more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow's Expansion was collateral for Today's Debt.
But now we face the dawn of the Second Half of the Age of Oil when supply declines from natural depletion, meaning that debt goes bad (as is already happening) and the economy contracts. Today's oil supply support 6.7 billion people, but by 2050 the supply will be enough to support no more than about 2.5 billion in their present way of life. So the challenges of using less and finding other energy sources is great.
The transition threatens to be a time of great tension : there are already tribal wars in Africa, disturbances in many places including rioting in Greece. Urban conditions will become especially difficult.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5315#more

Och sedan även senaste nytt från matt Simmons:
I don’t think that any one of them is about to have the epiphany that—as serious as climate change might be—if we have a supply collapse, the game’s over.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48714