måndag 23 november 2009

World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009

Eminente signaturen ace på TODs senaste outlook (November 09) för världens olje produktion:

World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.74 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 72 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline at about 2.2 mbd per year as shown below in the chart. The forecasts from the IEA WEO 2008 and 2009 are shown for comparison. The IEA 2009 forecast has dropped significantly lower than the 2008 forecast. The IEA 2009 forecast also shows a slight decline from 2009 to 2012 implying that the IEA possibly agrees that world oil peaked in July 2008.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production now to urgently increase the focus on oil conservation and alternative renewable energy sources.

World crude oil, condensate and oil sands production peaked in 2005 at an annual average of 73.72 million barrels per day (mbd) according to recent EIA production data. 2008 production was slightly less than 2005 creating a peak plateau from 2005 to 2008 as shown in the chart below. Production is expected to decline further as non OPEC annual oil production peaked in 2004 and is forecast to decline at a faster rate in 2010 and beyond due mainly to big declines from Russia, Norway, the UK and Mexico. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production peaked in 2005. By 2011, OPEC will not have the ability to offset cumulative non OPEC declines and world oil production is forecast to stay below its 2005 peak.

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