onsdag 20 maj 2009

World Oil Production Forecast - Update May 2009

World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.82 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 71 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline slowly to about December 2010 as OPEC production increases while non-OPEC production decreases. After 2010 the resulting annual production decline rate increases to 3.4% as OPEC production is unable to offset cumulative non-OPEC declines. The forecast from the IEA WEO 2008 is also shown for comparison.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production now to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative renewable energy sources.


Q: what's your estimate for reserve capacity?

Looking at the drop since last July 2008, it seems to me that there is at least 5 mbpd of reserve capacity, how does it affect your forecast? is the drop in supply from May 2009 to December 2010 caused by lower demand? do you think that an eventual economic recovery in late 2009 could push oil supplied up again given the large reserve capacity?

A: My estimate of annual sustainable surplus capacity for Saudi Arabia this year is about 1 mbd. Late 2010, annual surplus capacity of Saudi Arabia is assumed to be zero. Until Saudi Arabia's fields are independently audited there is no certainty in any of the claims made by Saudi Arabia about project capacity additions, sustainable production capacity or remaining reserves.
The drop in supply from May 2009 to Dec 2010 is caused by large non OPEC supply falls mainly from Russia, the North Sea and Mexico.

Crude Oil & Lease Condensate to 2012

Crude Oil & Lease Condensate to 2100

Total Liquids to 2012

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