12e November förra året publiserade IEA sin rapport "World Energy Outlook" som redovisats på denna blogg tidigare. Nytt i denna var som bekant en redogörelse även över världens olje tillgångar.
Naturliga bortfallet från redan existerande olje fält angav till hela 9% och för att motverka detta stora årliga tapp så angavs ett årligt incvesteringsbehov på motsvarande ca $350 billion. Dock även med denna storlek på nya årliga investeringar så angav man att nedgången aldrig kan bli lägre än 6.4%.
Nu, istället på investeringar motsvarande $350 billioner konstaterar IEA att industrin pga senaste finans krisen föregående år minskat sina investeringar med motsvarande $100 billioner.
Oavsett finans kris eller inte nedgången fortsätter från existerande fält och denna nedgång accelererar nu i takt med att nödvändiga investeringar lyser med sin bortavaro.
" January 2009 - World Economic Forum: Oil industry might face future supply problemsConcern is rising at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the oil industry is facing a deeper set of financial ailments and future supply problems. “We are getting ourselves into a serious situation in the oil sector,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol. “Smaller oil companies have been hit by credit problems and lower prices and we are seeing it now with big companies.” He estimates that around USD 100 billion worth of oil and natural drilling projects have been either delayed or cancelled over the past year."
http://www.iea.org/journalists/headlines.asp
"We estimate that the average production-weighted observed decline rate worldwide is currently 6.7% for fields that have passed their production peak. In our Reference Scenario, this rate increases to 8.6% in 2030. For the world as a whole, it is estimated at 9% for post-peak fields. In other words the decline in production from existing fields would have been around one-third faster had there been no capital spending on those fields once they had passed their peak.Our Reference Scenario projections imply an increase in the global average natural decline to around 10.5% per year by 2030 (almost two percentage points higher than the observed rate), as all regions experience a drop in average field size and most see a shift in production to offshore fields over the projection period. This means that total upstream investment in some countries will need to rise, in some cases significantly, just to offset this faster decline. Our Reference Scenario projections imply an increase in the global average natural decline(almost two percentage points higher than the observed rate), as all regions experience a drop in average field size and most see a shift in production to offshore fields over the projection period."
Ececutive Summary
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2008SUM.pdf
IEA press release November 12th
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=275
Key Graphs
http://www.iea.org/weo/key_graphs_08/WEO_2008_Key_Graphs.pdf
Notera att även om vi fram tom år 2030 skulle ha noll efterfråge tillväxt av olja så innebär minskningen från de existerande oljefälten att man trots detta måste ha ny produktion igång motsvarande FYRA nya Saudie Arabien fram tom 2030. I sanning en formidabel utmaning då vi nåde peak oil discovery redan 1964 och att vi sedan 1986 dagligen konsumerar mer olja än vad vi hittar.
Det kommer behövas en formidabel oil demand destruktion för att kunna matcha detta.
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