Would some big banks profit from a Greek debt default?

Hela iden med euron kanske är döfödd ändå? Europeiska Sydländernas Sol och Bad ekonomier har inte särdeles mycket gemensamt med nord europas industri baserade ekonomier. Kanske nu öppnas det upp en möjlighet att komma ur detta politiska missfoster och dessutom tjäna lite pengar i processen?

Former IMF and Wall Street analyst Desmond Lachman, however, was much more pessimistic when he raised the idea of Greece defaulting in a piece for Financial Times last week. "Much like Argentina a decade ago, Greece is approaching the final stages of its currency arrangement," he predicted, adding that "after much official money is thrown its way, Greece's euro membership will end with a bang."
http://moneymorning.com/2010/01/20/greece-debt/

If the eurozone fails to support Greece or makes the terms of any bail-out politically impossible for the country’s authorities to meet, Greece could default on its sovereign debt. The eurozone would then face a big problem. The financial markets would quickly turn their attention to other euro bloc economies with unsustainable fiscal positions and poor growth prospects. Italy, Spain and Portugal would find themselves paying dramatically higher borrowing costs, raising the likelihood of further fiscal crises. Such a scenario would almost certainly deter the European Union’s remaining central and eastern European member states joining the eurozone any time soon. And the political fallout would be huge
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd89c236-0141-11df-8c54-00144feabdc0.html

The recent credit crisis was over a few trillion in bad, mostly US, mortgage debts, with most of that at US banks. Greek debt is $350 billion, with about $270 billion of that spread among just three European countries and their banks. Make no mistake, a Greek default is another potential credit crisis in the making. As noted above, it is not just the writedown of Greek debt; it is the mark-to-market of other sovereign debt.

That would bankrupt the bulk of the European banking system, which is why it is unlikely to be allowed to happen. Just as the Fed (under Volker!) allowed US banks to mark up Latin American debt that had defaulted to its original loan value (and only slowly did they write it down; it took many years), I think the same thing will happen in Europe. Or the ECB will provide liquidity. Or there may be any of several other measures to keep things moving along. But real mark-to-market? Unlikely.
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/article/view/37585/can-the-european-banking-system-take-a-greek-default

Och sedan den inte så lite högintressanta slutklämmen:
“As Greece’s financial situation has deteriorated, the amount of outstanding CDSs on Greek debt has skyrocketed by 124% from $35 billion a year ago to a billion this month”
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/would-some-big-banks-profit-from-a-greek-debt-default/19373089/

För visst kan länder konka...

In their brilliant book, This Time Is Different (we've plugged it before), Reinhart and Rogoff do not have Britain in their very short list of six nations that have never defaulted (New Zealand, Australia, Thailand, Denmark, Canada and the USA). There are (at least?) two instances of the UK defaulting.
http://www.bondvigilantes.co.uk/blog/2010/02/02/1265121060000.html