Bailout or Not, Greece "Looks Like a Train Wreck," FT's Martin Wolf Says

För att samanfatta läget för Grekland - det blir oerhört svårt och jobbigt att enbart spara sig ur sin enorma skuldbörda givet hur stor skulden är. Hade Grekland istället haft en mer konkurrenskkraftig export orienterad privat industri kunde landet ha blivit hjälpt av denna men tyvärr är Grekernas export industri allt annat än konkurrens kraftig. Att enbart spara och utan att kunna öka sina intäkter i någon större utsträckning kommer skapa formidabla social spänningar. Hade landet inte varit knutet till Euron skulle man kunnat , precis som sverige låtit sin valuta flyta dvs i realiteten devalverat kraftigt men detta är inte en option för Grekland idag.

With much more confidence, Wolf says Greece "looks like a train wreck" because alleviating the immediate debt crisis will not solve the nation's long-term problems.

Greece needs to massively cut its long-term deficits, which means slashing government spending, Wolf says; that, in turn, could tip Greece into a steep recession. The problem is Greece remains "hopelessly uncompetitive" as an exporter. It will struggle to rekindle the kind of private sector growth needed to supplant government stimulus, he says.

For now policymakers seem likely to "paper over" Greece's problems and "kick the can down the road," he laments. "I don't see a proper resolution" for these long-term structural problems.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bailout-or-not-greece-%22looks-like-a-train-wreck%22-ft=

16 länder är med i Euro samarbetet - England är inte en av dessa
http://www.eu-upplysningen.se/Kort-om-EU/Fragor-och-svar-om-EU/Vilka-lander-har-euro-som-valuta/

Här däremot ett land som har problem i minst samma dignitet som Grekland men som tekniskt kan devalvera sin valuta för att komma ur sin skuld fälla och på så sätt inte bara minska sin skuld utan öka sin export och konkurrenskraft, precis så som vi i Sverige gjorde för några decennier sedan.

Greece Now, U.K. Next as Scots Ready for Pound Plunge
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- While the eyes of the world focus on Greece’s debt crisis, investors in Edinburgh are busy preparing for the U.K. to be next.

Turcan Connell, which caters to rich families, expects the pound to lose between 20 percent and 30 percent against the dollar once investors turn their sights on Britain as the government sells a record amount of debt. Sterling slid to a 10- month low versus the U.S. currency today.

“Alarm bells were ringing in Greece for a long time and when it happened, it happened very quickly,” Haig Bathgate, head of strategy at Turcan Connell, said at the company’s offices in the Scottish capital. “The U.K. is in a similar predicament. It could be hit very hard.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVDvzOH9wSks&pos=6

också förståss så har vi ytterligare en kandidat:

Japan näste man till rakning
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2010/02/japan-naste-man-till-rakning.html

Several countries to default
The U.S. is likely to tighten monetary policy before cutting government spending, sending “shockwaves” through financial markets, Rogoff said in an interview after the speech. Fiscal policy won’t be curbed until soaring bond yields trigger “very painful” tax increases and spending cuts, he said.

Investors will eventually demand higher interest rates to lend to countries around the world that have accumulated debt, including the U.S., he said.

The IMF forecast in November that gross U.S. borrowings will amount to the equivalent of 99.5 percent of annual economic output in 2011. The U.K.’s will reach 94.1 percent and Japan’s will spiral to 204.3 percent.
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2010/02/several-countries-to-default.html