tisdag 23 mars 2010

Trade deficit likely in March

En sådan här grej skulle mycket väl kunna bli det som till sist knäcker dollarn.

"BEIJING - The country will probably see a "record trade deficit" in March thanks to surging imports, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said on Sunday, while warning that Beijing will "fight back" if Washington labels China a currency manipulator."

"China's trade surplus with the US has been turned into a key excuse by American economists to pressurize the Chinese government to revalue the yuan," but, ironically, the calls have been growing stronger even as the "surplus keeps falling", Chen said

"The deficit has been vastly overestimated based on American statistics," and according to the latest report prepared by both sides, the US deficit for 2006 is "26 percent higher than it should have been," Chen said.

Sedan några intressanta kommentarer till denna nyhet:

"Perhaps this finally explains where all the excess liquidity has gone: with China now not exporting to the US consumer, it has instead refocused on its own "middle" class. This means that Chinese administrators are much more focused on maintaining a stable economy, and will be much more concerned about economic overheating, which goes in line with the recent indications of material liquidity tightening out of Beijing."

"The scariest implication: China is quickly running out of dollars which it can then recycle into US Treasuries. This is surely the biggest nightmare scenario for Tim Geithner. While this explains the decline in indirect bidding, it also may go to refute the whole premise of China being behind the direct UK-based bidders is flawed. And if so, is it merely just the Federal Reserve doing all the buying in a covert fashion (via BlackRock or othewise) as some of the more conspiratorially-minded market followers have speculated? "
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/22/content_9619515.htm

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