Russia 2010 oil output to fall -Bernstein analysts

Stämmer detta så har vi alltså haft en högst temporär respit i olje produktionen från Ryssland, idag världens största olje producent och som stått för mer än 80% av olje produktions ökningarna inom non opec. Viktigt att veta då vi tidigare sett en stor grad av korrelation mellan pris spiken till $147 och Rysslands tidigare produktions tak. En tillfällig produktions spike i Rysk olje produktion sedan dess tog dock till delar bort detta pristryck men som sagt verkar nu komma tillbaka snart med full kraft.

Se inlägget "Elefanten i vardagsrummet " nedan och inse att vi nu definitivt går mot olje analytiker nestorn Maxwells wave No. 2, dvs det läge då olja definitivt etablerar sig för gott över $100 nivån.

* Russian oil output in 2010 could fall as much as 4 percent
* LUKOIL Korchagin field seen starting in March 2010

* Monthly production topped 10 mbpd in September

By Chris Baldwin

London, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Russian oil output will stagnate in 2010 and begin to decline as mature fields lose production capacity and only one new project comes on line, oil analysts at Bernstein Research said on Wednesday.

Russia, now the world's largest oil producer, pumped 10.01 million barrels per day last month, up 0.4 percent from the 9.97 million bpd produced in August, both record highs, Russian Energy Ministry data released last week showed. [ID:nL2451607]

But Bernstein analysts said Russian production, which recovered in 2009 after dropping for the first time in a decade in 2008, was merely experiencing a temporary spike following the launches of eight new fields this year.

But Bernstein analysts said Russian production, which recovered in 2009 after dropping for the first time in a decade in 2008, was merely experiencing a temporary spike following the launches of eight new fields this year.

Senior oil analyst Clint Oswald at Bernstein Research wrote that 0.6 percent year on year growth in the year to the end of September, in a year when eight projects added 640,000 bpd of new production, "does not sound like a great achievement or the start of an up trend.,"

"With only one significant field due to come on stream in 2010 and reduced drilling activity, we continue to expect declining oil output in Russia in the near term," Oswald wrote in a research note.

He projected three possible scenarios for 2010, assuming decline rates in base production of 3 to 4 percent, resulting in a percentage output drop ranging from 0.29percent to 1.24 percent down year on year

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSLE70186320091014?rpc=401&

Elefanten i vardagsrummet
Wave one of this process was the run-up to US$140. Maxwell earlier this decade called for oil to hit US$60 a barrel. Speculators took it way past that, obviously.

But wave No. 2, which Maxwell originally predicted would take oil above US$100 for the first time, will arrive when non-OPEC production peaks, sometime before 2012 (a bit before van der Veer’s prediction that the OECD will peak in 2015). During this period, the world will be extremely reliant on the oil output of just five or six countries: Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Venezuela. But even the mighty OPEC will peak some day.

http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2008/11/elefanten-i-vardagsrummet.html