Credit Crisis Cassandra

Nedanstående video - Warning - MÅSTE alla läsare av denna blogg se.

Brooksley Born's Unheeded Warning Is a Rueful Echo 10 Years On

Brooksley Born in 1964, the first female president of the Stanford Law Review. She was also the first woman to finish at the top of the class. (Photos By Carol Guzy -- The Washington Post)

Friends nudge the woman who saw the catastrophe coming.

They want Brooksley Born to say four words, four simple words: "I told you so."

Ah, but she won't -- not at legal conferences or dinner parties. Not even in a quiet moment in her living room, giving her first interview with a major news organization since last fall's economic collapse.

She just smiles, perched ever so properly in an upholstered armchair at her Kalorama home.

"More coffee?" she asks daintily, changing the subject.

A little more than a decade ago, Born foresaw a financial cataclysm, accurately predicting that exotic investments known as over-the-counter derivatives could play a crucial role in a crisis much like the one now convulsing America. Her efforts to stop that from happening ran afoul of some of the most influential men in Washington, men with names like Greenspan and Levitt and Rubin and Summers -- the same Larry Summers who is now a key economic adviser to President Obama.

She was the head of a tiny government agency who wanted to regulate the derivatives. They were the men who stopped her.

The same class of derivatives that preoccupied Born -- including the now-infamous "credit-default swaps" -- have been blamed for accelerating last fall's financial implosion. But from 1996 to 1999, when Born was the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. economy was roaring and she was getting nowhere with predictions of doom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyjfmTkBpcA&feature=related

Warning
Brooksley Born's side of the financial collapse

Brooksley Born, former appointed head of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) talks about the derivatives dark hidden market. Also about disagreements with Alan Greenspan and his cohorts. This documentary should be seen by every person who uses money to better understand what happened when the economy collapsed. The full broadcast can be viewed at
www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/view/

Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zZLwQH0X2M

Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKGTGji8zhs&feature=related

I denna veckas sändning av Financial Sense 3rd hour - special edition - diskuteras denna dokumentär och även denna bör man definitivt ta del av. I synnerhet de delar där man går igenom vad som ligger framför oss relaterat till dessa derivat.

Tänkvärt bla: Derivat handeln fortsätter att växa trots finansiella krisen. I USA har nu enligt senaste kvartals mätningarna derivathandeln vuxit med ca 1% motsvarande ca 1 och en halv trillion dollars. Globalt värderas nu derivat handeln till ca $600 trillioner, varav ca 204 trillioner bara i USA. I USA ligger 97% av dessa drivat hos fem aktörer där tre aktörer har ca 80% av dessa, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs och Bank of Amerika varav den största är JP Morgan med ca 30% av alla derivat. JP Morgan har idag motsvarande $1.7 trillion i tillgångar och $80 trillion i derivat.

Senaste finanskrisen har resulterat i att finans marknaden har centrerats ytterligare och de stora aktörerna har blivit ännu större. Därmed betydligt större risk.

Viktigt är att 85% av dessa derivat är i någon form ränte relaterade. Vad som nu händer med valutorna, obligations marknaden, länders finansierings upplägg och möjligheter kommer att avgöra varthän räntorna tar vägen. Med dagens räntemiljö som historiskt sett är den lägsta vi någonsin sett är det därmed klart att stigande framtida räntor med största säkerhet kan komma att utlösa en ny derivat driven global finansiell härdsmälta. Ännu en anledning altså för Bernanke att inte försöka att försvara dollarn.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

Theather of the Absurd: A View from the Inside
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2009/05/theater-of-absurd-view-from-inside.html

Hur verkliga är bankerna resultat?
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2009/05/hur-verkliga-ar-bankernas-resultat.html