"We beleive the market is still overestimating the levels of execution risks associated with this story and beleive that the company's ability to demostrate ongoing construction progress at McKay, along with additional exploration and a potential regulatory application at Mckay, could act as further cathalysts for the shares in 2011."
"Our unrisked net asset value estimate is nearly $6/share, which we beleive represents the real upside potential of the shares as the company works to "de-risk" the value of it's oil sands recourses through development"
BMO is definitely using a VERY conservative Oil price of $90 in 2015. Remember that this is only 4 years from now. Net asset value should be adjusted accordingly if you believe that oil will be higher than $90 in 4 years.
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/40E0D89E-3EE1-4D8F-9747-1D65A6341567.PDF
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