fredag 21 januari 2011

About Gold, confiscation and economic growth

It's certainly true gold is money and that the same could be said about Silver. It's also true that gold really has quite insignificant industrial value and that there are more use of silver in different types of industrial applications.

So if securing you purshasing value is your prime objective well then sure buing "real"money such as gold and silver might be a good idea. With gold and silver in real terms you will be able to maintain your purshasing power. The tricky part here is that first of all gold is the real key target for all those in power promoting our fiat currency system. Seconly these gold and silver markets are real puny markets real easy to manipulate. So now for quite many years we have had a situation whereby the cost of mining and producing gold has exceeded the paper market value of gold. Strange uh?

So given this it's clear to everybody invesigating this at lest to some minimum degree that the gold paper and silver paper markets have been manipulated more or less starting with the introduction of the Federal Reserve 1913 but very cleary and most certainly increasingly so after the abandonment of the gold standard during the Nixon era.

Then read about what happened to gold during President Roosevelt when simply all gold was confiscated and a new articicial gold price was set more or less over night. Could that happen again? Sure and I'm dead certain it will. At that point it's clear the paper market value of gold can not be manipulated any further and as the shoratages of physical supply really starts to kick in when every body wants real physical gold then at that very point new trading regulation and possibly even confiscation will be introduced.

This sure has happened before as we have seen as well as new trade regulation introduced over night. In fact it was such new trading rules that destroied the Silver corner made by the Hunt brothers in the 70ties. They simply was forced in to the market again in order to adhere to the new securisation regulations rules and was made to sell at dirt cheap levels their own silver in huge quanities thus simlpy destroing their own silver accumulated welth.

Bottom line hard assets that can serve as some kind of exchange for money is and will be the first aim to shoot at for the powers at be. But for those of us that see the humongos debt levelsin almost all OECD economies impossible to repay without significant and drastic currency devaluation, what then if not precious metals should we invest in?

My bet is oil. Becaus in fact oil can be see as the real ultimate currency. Economic growth depends on energy and today in particual access to oil. Certainly that is the case today with our globalised transport intensive economy. So countries and economies able to access oil will be able to have an economy as industry and transportation so much deppends on it. Then sure these oil markes also have been and are manipulated but it's had to do longer time as oil is the the worlds largest traded market.

Also now we clearly begin to see the really powefull supply vs demand forces kick in as the notion of peak oil and deminicing oir reserves starts to get more acceptance.

As already some 90% of all known oil reserves today are nationalised you could argue oil already has been confiscated. And that is true. But still there are some places where oil exist and where the legal system is in place to protect investors. That place sure isen't the Middle East, Russia, Venezuela or Nigeria. Instead it's a country boardering one of the worlds most developed economies. I'm of course thinking of Canada and in particulare the Canadian oil sands reserves.

So while it will get more and more expensive to dig up the oil off-shore, from oil and Tar Sands and as more and more the countries sitting on already nationalised oil reserves will start to think twice about exporting that oil at dirt cheap prices oil is bound to remain a safe heaven for investors trying not only to protect their purchasing value as currencys over the world increasinly are debased but also will be able to reduce the risk of getting their invested confiscated or manipulated with. Certainlt that is the case if you're picking the right country as base for your oil investment.


Gold Confiscation: Could it Happen Again?
People who scoff at the suggestion that the government might restrict private gold ownership should remember that many other countries have restrictions on (or absolute prohibitions against) private gold ownership. They should also remember that, in 1933, Franklin Delano Roosevelt dealt with a monetary and banking crisis by confiscating all privately owned gold; paying for the gold at $20.67 per ounce; immediately devaluing the dollar by 40 percent; and setting the price of gold at $35.00 per ounce. At a single stroke, Roosevelt increased the government's gold assets, stabilized the monetary system and increased wholesale prices by more than 33 percent. However, he also inflicted losses of 40 percent on gold owners and stripped them of the gold that they saved to insure their financial futures.
http://www.blanchardonline.com/beru/confiscation_again.php

And sure Bonds is not where you want to be..

Sovereign Debt Unsafe, Default Concern Spreads to U.S., Japan, Buiter Says
Fears of a sovereign default are “manifest” in Europe and will soon spread to Japan and the U.S. as governments struggle to control deficits, according to Citigroup Inc. economists led by former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter.

“Despite the recent drama, we believe we have only seen the opening and second act, with the rest of the plot still evolving,” London-based Buiter and colleagues wrote in a research note published today. “There is absolutely no safe” sovereign.

“The U.S. and Japan likely cannot continue to ignore the issues of fiscal sustainability,” said the Citigroup economists, who added that it’s “only a matter of time” before the U.S. government can only fund itself through debt issuance at “significantly higher interest rates.”

Bottom line no private investor and only goverments today buy treasuries. Goverment bonds is the mother of all bubbles.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-07/sovereign-debt-unsafe-default-concern-spreads-to-u-s-japan-buiter-says.html

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