onsdag 7 april 2010

The Pentagon also expects an imminent oil shock

A report from the American Joint Forces Command published March 15 predicts that in 2015, the world capacity for petroleum prouction could be 10 million barrels per day less than the demand.

The report of the American Department of Defense (DoD), titled Joint Operating Environemnt 2010 indicates (page 29):

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015. the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD."

10 million barrels per day (MBD), that represents the production of Saudi Arabia, the world's leading petroleum producer.
Such a shortfall, if it should come, would be more than 10 percent of the world demand for crude, which is today 86.5 MBD, and ought to reach 90 MBD in 2015.

If this hypothesis of the Pentagon comes to pass, a third oil shock would hit the world economy, one that would probably be more violent than the two preceding ones.

An identical prediction of a gap of 10 MBD between supply and demand in 2015 appeared on page 8 in the Department of Energy (DoE) document

The DoD and the DoE seem to agree on the same prediction

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