tisdag 27 april 2010

AFA

Båten har nu som bekant gett sig iväg i Lördags efter mer än tre års väntan och samplingen är i gång. Om ca 10-15dagar kommer första del resultaten och om ytterligare ca 30 dagar kommer andra delresultaten.

Ca juni/augusti sedan kommer den officiella 43-101 klassningen. Mycket på gång således.

Vill man veta mer om potentialen kan ni igen ögna igenom nedanstående. Värderingen 0.4 cents per carat hittar ni i bifogad AFA presentation nedan. Själv räknar jag nu kallt med 6 m carat dvs motsvarande en framtida värdering på AFA av över C$2.

Lägg sedan till allt detta nu det faktum att allt fler börjar att inse att vi nu faktiskt nått peak prioduktion av on shore diamond mining och att nu efterrågan på dessa ädla stenar komemr att öka i förhållande till en dessutom minskande framtida tillgång.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dab364d8-509e-11df-bc86-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fdab364d8-509e-11df-bc86-00144feab49a.html%3Fcatid%3D20%26SID%3Dgoogle&SID=google&_i_referer=&catid=20

Dels kommer detta att ge en ännu bättre potentiel framtida kalkyl värderingmässigt för AFA för de fyndigheter man bevisar och dessutom och givet att man nu är så framkörda vad gäller produktion, myndighets kontakter, admininstration osv off shore så sitter man nu på en unik position att utöka sin exploatering och framtida produktion nu inom vad som eg kanske är världens mest intressanta diamant off shore potential dvs utanför Namibias kust.

DeBeers/Namdebs find at Atlantic 1 that AFAs Cheif geologist was instrumental in finding is considered to be a 100 m carats find. The total area is some 5 times larger than AFAs block J but these two areas (A1 and Block J) seems to be very alike in terms of geological structure and apperance according to Mr Forster. That is the guy that was involved in finding A1 as well as now is AFAs cheif geologis. He - if anyone - should know.

Then of course we need to realize that the sampling area we getting in to not only is DEEPER and thus gives us the following potential vs the earlier made sampling:

"AFAs most recent 43-101 report has established a potential ranging from 0.7 million to 1.8 million carats on 35% of the mineralized area."

NB the above sampling was made on a 12.3 km2 area and that there in addition to this is some 15 km2 area in Block J that in fact also very likely contains diamonds.

Now as we in this third sampling with the new state of the art vessle are capable of digging much deeper (down to 12 meters) than what was possible in sampling two (only two meters) - and down to where the most important layers are (6 meters down) and in fact - this is what CEO Mr Leveille had to say about the potential:

"It is recorded in the industry and has happen to every company that the first sampling with a light tool has only touch the surface and then when they came back with a more powerful tool, they normally increase the grade by 2 to 4 times. "

So in a real normal case we now can expect a new range of in between 1.4 and all the way up to 7.4 Mcp.

But then Mr Leveille goes on to say:

"We have seen some specific case in specific areas where the grades have gone up by 20 times. However the general rule is 2 to 4 times.’’

Given all of the above gives me reason to beleive a find of at least 6M carats should not be entierly unlikely. That is simply because I do not think Block J is a normal case and that it may proove to have a significantely higher potential than an average find.

Thus and in a best possible case scenario - if A1 and Block J would show to be identical in terms of scoope, potentialn etc - then we could end up with even a 20 M carats find at Block J.

But in addition to all of this we then also need to consider that the new sampling we´re abvout ton enbark upon is larger as the first NR 43-101 sampling was made on an area totaling 12.3 km2 . The new sapling area we´re now to start however is an an area of 22 km2 or almost a 100% increase.

"The sampling program on Block J will cover Features 6, 8, 17 and 19 covering seven Geological Zones and will comprise a total of 332 samples. Of these, 271 are sited within delineated targets covering 19.6 square kilometres. The remaining 61 samples are designed to test geological formations that are thought to be potentially diamond bearing, but have not yet been proved as such. Approximately 22 square kilometres will be examined by future programs of detailed geophysics, vibracoring, and evaluation sampling. The aim of the complete surveying and sampling program is to delineate diamond resources on Afri-Can´s Block J marine diamond concession in Namibia in compliance with National Instrument 43-101."

So choose you pick and sure there is room for speculation here. With a potential of anything in between 3 m to 20 m carats in Block J I guess anyones pick may have the potential to be the right one.

Operating profit assumptions per share (based on the current number of shares issued of 177 Million and on 70% owners hip of the concession) CDN $ 0.40
http://www.afri-can.com/files/ssparagraph/f761707200/presentation_summary_march_2_2010.pdf

SP valualtion based on an assumtion of:

1 milion carats - C$ 0.40
2 milion carats - C 0.80
3 milion carats - C$ 1.2
4 milion carats - C$ 1.6
5 milion carats - C$ 2
6 milion carats - C$ 2.4
7 milion carats - C$ 2.8
8 milion carats - C$ 3.2
9 milion carats - C$ 3.6
10 milion carats - C$ 4
20 milion carats - C$ 8

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