onsdag 2 februari 2011

What are you zinking about?

Zinc consumption numbers provided by the international zinc and lead study group over the last couple of months are simply phenomenal and as the presentation below indicates large growth rates could prevail for the next few years sending the zinc market into a hefty deficit beginning 2013 as some mines run out of ore.

If you compare the presentation numbers (mainly brook hunt) and the real data from the ILZSG you see that the main reason why zinc prices are actually sticking closely to the upper part of the cash cost curve is a structural underestimation of growth on the demand side.

When China's galvanizing boom started the growth rates were even more impressive than today, but their overall share of the market was little and Europe+US had negative growth rates, therefore zinc consumption didn't shoot up the way it did in 2010, so far zinc consumption grew by 15% (Jan-Nov).

In 2011 China could become the largest producer of galvanized sheet with a growth rate above 30% in 2010!

http://nyrstar.com/nyrstar/en/investors/reports/2010/db-brics-conference/db-brics-conference.pdf

http://www.ilzsg.org/static/statistics.aspx?from=2

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