onsdag 23 februari 2011

We’d be talking about $200 oil

"Among other things, Gadhafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities," Baer wrote. "The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos."

A fair guess I assume is that it will take a while before that 1.6 million barrels per day from Libya again may be awailable on the world oil markets.In the meanwhile and as it seems quite difficult to with that short notice to ramp up production even if there where to be no challenge with awailble oil supply. As more oil from the inventory reserves now are drawn these margins will be hurt for quite some time - if ever to be replaced.

“Qaddafi has unequivocally declared his intention to massacre his own people,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. “Time for the international community to intervene.”

Then at least to me it sure is not chrystal clear at all that Saudi Arabia will not be drawn in to this turnmoil given now how events unfold in the Arab World. As this was not enough then there is that islamic conflict Sunni (Saudi Arabia) vs Shiia (Iran) lurking. That in it self is enough to ignite av real difficult situation within the region, add to that the hatred and resentment so many in the Arab world feels towards the Saudi ruling elite and you sure have enough to feed a real revolution

"Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, today moved to increase living standards after protests reached neighboring Bahrain. King Abdullah today announced at least $11 billion in spending increases on social security and housing.

Saudi Arabia has a Shiite Muslim minority in the eastern provinces, where most of its oil is produced. Shiites have been leading protests in Bahrain, home of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, where they form a majority and say they suffer discrimination under a Sunni monarchy."

“Pricing in Libya supply disruptions is one thing, but what if this social unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia, which holds 20 percent of the world’s oil?” said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff. “Do the math: we’d be talking about $200 oil.”

“Oil would go parabolic,” said Joe Terranova, chief market strategist for Virtus Investment Partners and former energy trader. “The Shiite population (compared to the Sunni ruling family) is more concentrated in the oil producing region. The workers could strike.”

Maybye this move by Iran is sending a message through action to their Shiia brothers in Saudia Arabia. Workers that might be "inspired" now to take action and overthrow their oppressors?

JERUSALEM - A senior Israeli official says Tehran's decision to send two naval vessels through the Suez Canal is part of an Iranian campaign to gain "hegemony and control" over the Middle East.

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