STP

We have some resistans at 1.9 as well as 2.01. We just need two days of closing above these levels and we'll be charging forth like nothing you have seen before. Nothing goes straight upp without any sort of consolidation, strength gathering and what have you.

However, nobody that has any type of insights in this play says this isen't a great opportunity for further valuation improvements going further as far as SP is concerned.

In the mean time let's compare STP with another oil play, PXX.TO that has roughly the same reseves, same number of shares and within a year roughly the same production. One difference is that PXX today is debt free but if all goes as planned with McKay phase 1 STP also will be debt free by 2015.

Now compared with STP PXX today has more than four times the valuation. Kinda gives you an idea doesen't it about where STPs SP is heading. Can't blaim Soros and his crew for entering in to this play at this particulare moment. Maybye somebody right now is trying to accumulate before the real heavy blast takes us to much higer SP levels. Time sure is starting to run out if you want to accumulate at these levels.

"Soros reports that Quantum held at January 31, 2011, 20,400,000 shares and $25,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.00% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures due june 30, 2016 ("Debentures") of the company. The Debentures are convertible in to common shares 465.1163 common shares of the ("Company") shares per $1,000 principal amount of Debentures untill June 30th, 2016. The shares and debentures, if converted, held by Quantum represents in aggregate approximately 9.18% of all outstanding shares."
http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=00008HupafOULoEP60UF88AJxka:-1

This as now both macro and geopolitical events support much higher oil prices in the future than anticipated by most analysts. Or anybody here that sincerely belive the situation as it now has developed in the Arab world will be a quick fix?

Brent $/barrel 114,58
WTI $/barrel 99,49

In addition we now also of course have some STP specific events to strenghten our case:

- Senlac Phase H (2 SAGD well pairs) expected to be producing in March 2011
- Red Earth, Q2-2011, restart pilot project. Objective is to produce 10.000 bpd.
- Results from this winter core holes drilling program
- McKay Phase 1 construction updates. Production of 12.000 bpd to start Feb/March 2012
- McKay Phase 2 application to be submitted during summer 2011. Already a 10.000 bpd opportunity at McKay 2 identified but this may, after this winter core hole drilling program, to grow up to be a 20.000 bpd opportunity.
- Senlac Phase J possibly in October 2011.

Then we have these guys lurking in the shaddows.

"The deal gives PetroChina 60 percent control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.´s Mac Kay and Dover oil sands deposits in Alberta. The yield from the two deposits is likely to be modest when compared with total estimates of about 175 billion barrels of oil held in the sands, the largest after Saudi Arabia.

Industry analysts said China would likely seek to expand its Canadian tar sands portfolio."

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/01/05/China-buys-into-Canadian-tar-sands-exploitation-project/UPI-22041262732184/#ixzz1DYFkW8BQ

So bottom line with a severely undervalued play (by any standard), with smart money like e.g. Soros buying large chunks in to this case and with reserves and production sites sourrounded by large oil plays agressively expanding their production like e.g. PetroChina expaning in the wery area you are developing (McKay), and with fantastic opportunitys to increase both reserves as well as production within months, you got quite a lot going for you. Don't you agree?

Here is what BMO Capital markets has to say about this play:

"We beleive the market is still overestimating the levels of execution risks associated with this story and beleive that the company's ability to demostrate ongoing construction progress at McKay, along with additional exploration and a potential regulatory application at Mckay, could act as further cathalysts for the shares in 2011."

"Our unrisked net asset value estimate is nearly $6/share, which we beleive represents the real upside potential of the shares as the company works to "de-risk" the value of it's oil sands recourses through development"

Comment - BMO is definitely using a VERY conservative Oil price of $90 in 2015. Remember that this is only 4 years from now. Net asset value should be adjusted accordingly if you believe that oil will be higher than $90 in 4 years.
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/40E0D89E-3EE1-4D8F-9747-1D65A6341567.PDF