Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Jeff Rubin, the former CIBC World Markets Inc. chief economist who accurately predicted oil’s surge during the last decade, expects crude to reach $90 a barrel this quarter and $100 by the year’s end.
Accelerating demand in Asia and the Middle East will force consumers to rely on costlier non-conventional energy sources such as oil sands, said Rubin, who spent 20 years with the Toronto-based bank and last year published a book on energy economics, “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.” Rubin correctly forecast in 2007 that crude would reach $100.
“It’s safe to say that we’ll see triple-digit oil prices by the fourth quarter of this year,” Rubin, 55, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “I would expect prices to move pretty close to that level, and be in the $90 range probably by the end of March.”
Rubin forecast in his book, published last summer, that oil will advance to $200 a barrel by 2012. The commodity’s move toward this target will be “steady provided the economic recovery is sustained,” he said. The strain of $200 oil on consuming nations may prompt a subsequent collapse toward $40, he added.
“When we get into 2011 or 2012 and we start to deal with prices of $120 a barrel, $147 a barrel, $160 a barrel, that’s where I think at least the global economy becomes very challenged,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZmJGmyDUVXM
och här nedan kommentarer till Rubins uttalanden:
The Fast Money traders are taking note of a bullish oil prediction. It’s not so much what was said as it is, by whom.
In a Bloomberg interview the widely followed economist Jeff Rubin (formerly of CIBC) predicted oil prices are about to embark on a long ascent. “It’s safe to say that we’ll see triple-digit oil prices by the fourth quarter of this year,” he said.
"This time we can expect oil prices to rise and continue rising," he added. And he expects prices to move pretty close to $100, and be in the $90 range as soon as the end of March.
That's not the first bullish prediction for crude but the Fast Money traders are taking note because Rubin has been spot on. In 2007, he accurately forecast that oil prices would skyrocket.
As you likely remember the price of oil hit $147 in July 2008 sending prices at the pump well over $4 a gallon. And Rubin says we could see it again – as soon as 2011.
Our own oil expert, Fast Money trader Joe Terranova says much the same. "If oil doesn’t hit $100 this year, I think the equities markets will have a bad year. Personally, I think oil goes above $150 in the next 3 years.
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