David Rosenberg released an emergency note today, in addition to his traditional morning piece, in which the sole topic is the upcoming recession, which he says is now a "virtual certainty".
He also says what Zero Hedge has been saying for month: that 2011 is an identical replica of 2010, but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs decline before QE3 is launched.
Sure enough, a major market tumble will fix all that in a few days, and ironically we can't help but continue to wonder whether the Fed is not actively doing all in its power to actually crash the market to about 20% lower which will send practically flatten the treasury curve and give Bernanke full reign to do as he sees fit.
However, as long as the BTFD and mean reversion algos kick in every time the market makes a 2% correction, such efforts are doomed, which in turn makes all such dip buying futile. We give the market a few more weeks before it comprehends this. In the meantime, with each passing day in which "nothing happens", the recession within a depression looms closer, and soon it will be inevitable and not all the money printed by Bernanke will do much if anything (except to terminally wound the dollar). In the meantime, for those who wish to prepare for the double dip onset, here is Rosie's checklist of what to do, and what not.
"Commodities in general, energy and raw food in particular, should be a core position, as they are behaving less cyclically and more as a secular growth theme linked to the rapidly rising incomes in the emerging market economies.
The economy and risk assets typically hit a speed bump in a recession. That much is true, but investment ideas and opportunities within the market can still flourish even in a bear phase or a correction — cash should not have to be an option."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/david-rosenberg-recession-virtual-certainty-and-here-how-trade-it
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar