onsdag 5 oktober 2011

September 2011 Policy & Markets

News to expect in the coming days and weeks:

Greece defaults

Germany protects German banks but other countries cannot do the same thus quickly provokingmultiple sovereign defaults and or bank failures, all of which may easily lead to a payments crisis in the global banking system. Derivatives are particularly at risk in terms of operation and execution.

TheEuro falls in value especially against the US dollar

The Germans announce they are re-introducing the Deutschmark. They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up.

TheEuro falls even more on any news that Germany is withdrawing from the Euro.

Legal wrangling begins as to the legality of Germany’s decision. Resolution takes years.

Germany insists that the Euro continues to exist even they do not use it any longer. They emphasize that European unification will continue and suggest new legal instruments to strengthen European Unification including new EU Treaties.

Gold, diamonds, agricultural assets, energy prices and mined asset prices will rise. Default reduces the debt burden and allows growth and inflation to return. If central banks (other than the ECB) throw huge liquidity out into the market because of this event then the liquidity is going to lean away from paper financial assets other than the most trusted and liquid (US Treasuries), and lean toward hard assets.

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