söndag 31 juli 2011

Paul Kreugman - gold a marketing scam

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/the-glenn-beck-debeers-connection/

Wait a minute, you're thinking: gold is a classic hedge against inflation, and so the price of gold has always been viewed as a good indicator about where market participants think inflation is going. It turns out that the relationship between gold and inflation expectations is rather out-of-date; as shown in the chart below, the price of gold has not shown any correlation with inflation for the past 15 years or so. (Note that the green line shows one explicit measure of inflation expectations, by measuring the interest rate difference between bonds that are indexed against inflation compared to those that aren't.)

So moving just 0.1% of the financial wealth of US households into gold could be enough to have a substantial impact on the price of gold. Note that the same can not be said of other asset prices that we care about; it would be difficult to discern any price effects whatsoever of a move of $50 billion more or less per year flowing into the stock market (valued at over $50 trillion around the world), the bond market (also with a total value in the tens of trillions of dollars), or real estate.
http://streetlightblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/should-we-care-about-price-of-gold.html

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