In this scenario, by 2035, three-quarters of the world’s oil production from existing fields will need to be replaced, Mr Tanaka said.
That works out to just over 50 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about four times the production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer.
IEA analysts calculated that this amount of oil is needed to compensate for the predicted decline in production at existing fields, as they pass their peak and their production rates drop. (Crude oil output from fields that were in production in 2009 is expected to fall from 68 million barrels per day in 2009 to 16 million per day by 2035).
http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?ID=1928
Fatih Birol (IEA) interview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKkISqOCnVA
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