onsdag 27 april 2011
söndag 24 april 2011
Joe Rogan on novelty theory
Joe Rogan on Breuer Unleashed talks novelty theory and the nature of ego.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uziQoBS_3y4&feature=player_embedded
Joe Rogan on materialism
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYCS2o8JMY4&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uziQoBS_3y4&feature=player_embedded
Joe Rogan on materialism
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYCS2o8JMY4&NR=1
onsdag 20 april 2011
What’s Really Worrisome About Treasury Debt: Not Its Rating—Its Interes
So in other words, the United States cannot afford inflation. Or more properly speaking: The United States’ fiscal balance sheet cannot afford to fight inflation.
Think about it: If there is a rise in inflation, then the Federal Reserve would have no other option but to raise interest rates at least a couple of percentage points—
—but the Federal government cannot afford such a drastic rise in rates. Not when a 1% rise in rates translates into an additional $100,000,000,000 in yearly vigorish.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/04/whats-really-worrisome-about-treasury.html
Think about it: If there is a rise in inflation, then the Federal Reserve would have no other option but to raise interest rates at least a couple of percentage points—
—but the Federal government cannot afford such a drastic rise in rates. Not when a 1% rise in rates translates into an additional $100,000,000,000 in yearly vigorish.
http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/04/whats-really-worrisome-about-treasury.html
AFA
På AFAs hemsida hittar man nu en ny radio presentation med AFAs CEO Mr Leveille daterad den 13 April. Han berättar där om nuvarande status gällande pågående och om nu vilken dag som helst avslutade första samplingen på nya området EPL 3403 Marine Diamond Concession i Namibia.
http://www.afri-can.com/
Värt att notera att denna nu AFAs första sampling har föregåtts av en tidigare sampling av annat bolag som då bestog av totalt 199 provtagningar. Det var då de södra delarna av den koncession som nu AFA innehar som då var målet för dessa provtagningar.
Sammanfattningsvis kan man konstatera att detta tidigare arbete resulterade i total 8st positiva provtagningar av samma karraktär som de hittade i Namdebts angränsande område Atlantic 1 vara i fem av dessa man även kunde konstatera positiva koncentrationer av diamanter.
"Some 199 samples have been extracted and 14 of those samplescontained 23 stones ranging between 0.07 and 2.69 carats per stone, said Leveille."
"In one area in the south, 8 positive samples had anaverage size of 0.80 carats per stone which is comparable to resultsfrom the adjacent Namdeb deposit, Atlantic One."
"It is also important to note, that multiple stones were found in five samples oneof which contained six stones. This is a major indication ofconcentration and confirms that a deposit lies in this specific area,which covers 16 square kilometres. The northern area geologicallysimilar to Atlantic One covers a vast 160 square kilometres," he said.
Leveillesaid the next step is to develop the resources.
Så givet detta har man redan nu inna man nu påbörjat AFAs första egna provtagningar i området vissa positiva indikationer. Nu har AFA som målsättning att i denne den första egna och vilken dag som helst nu avslutade första provtagningen som sedan även kommer att åtföljas av ytterligare en till provtagningsrunda antagligen mot slutet av sommaren försöka förädla detta område under en 6 månaders period. Resultatet från AFAs första provtagnings arbete kommer att enligt bolaget kunna resovisas undee Maj månad.
"The first sampling has been very positive and has proven presence of diamonds. We now go backto where we have seen the deposits and explore and prospect for the nextsix months, and then with that completed we can probably envisage trial mining during the last quarter of 2011. From trial mining we switch tocommercial mining."
So in order to conclude by adding the info from this article to what Mr Leveille just recently replyed to via email we then get the following future schedule for AFA:
"we are currently carrying out a sampling program on our new concession EPL3403 and the results will be published in the coming month."
"We have made an agreement to acquire EPL 3403 and we are currently sampling it with the goal to follow up with a second sampling within 3 to 4 months after completion of the first round."
Comment - that is a second sampling at EPL 3403 possibly by August
Så bolagets VD Mr Leveille flaggar här för trialmining under slutet av innevarande år för denna nya koncession EPL 3403. Utöver detta fastslår man även att m,an kommer att genomföra även trial mining på Block J i ett senare skede efter det att första explorations fasen av nya området EPL 3403 genomförts.
"We discovered a profitable diamond deposit at Block J, which we will go back and mine, some 250km north of EPL 3403, in an area where diamonds were discovered for the first time. The diamonds are known to be smaller, but the resources there still have the potential to be over 1 million carats. We´ll do trial mining after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Potential to be over 1 million carats.
http://www.afri-can.com/en/article-published-business-live-november-25-2010.htm
- Comment trial mining at Block J after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Could this mean after first or second sampling or possibly trial mining at EPL 3403?
So the company´s plans to seek a secondary listing on the JSE – its primary listing is on the Toronto Stock Exchange´s Venture exchange where is has been listed since 1986 - seems a natural step.
The listing, he says, will likely be in the second half of 2011, as it takes some time to prepare.
In short:
- First sampling of EPL3403 started April 27 and will be finished no later than 30 days later.
- Results of sampling will be made public in May
- Second sampling of EPL3403 to start possibly by August
- Secondary listing on the JSE second half of 2011
- Trial mining of EPL3403 last quarter 2011
- Trial mining of Block J after the first exploration phase of EPL3403
http://www.afri-can.com/
Värt att notera att denna nu AFAs första sampling har föregåtts av en tidigare sampling av annat bolag som då bestog av totalt 199 provtagningar. Det var då de södra delarna av den koncession som nu AFA innehar som då var målet för dessa provtagningar.
Sammanfattningsvis kan man konstatera att detta tidigare arbete resulterade i total 8st positiva provtagningar av samma karraktär som de hittade i Namdebts angränsande område Atlantic 1 vara i fem av dessa man även kunde konstatera positiva koncentrationer av diamanter.
"Some 199 samples have been extracted and 14 of those samplescontained 23 stones ranging between 0.07 and 2.69 carats per stone, said Leveille."
"In one area in the south, 8 positive samples had anaverage size of 0.80 carats per stone which is comparable to resultsfrom the adjacent Namdeb deposit, Atlantic One."
"It is also important to note, that multiple stones were found in five samples oneof which contained six stones. This is a major indication ofconcentration and confirms that a deposit lies in this specific area,which covers 16 square kilometres. The northern area geologicallysimilar to Atlantic One covers a vast 160 square kilometres," he said.
Leveillesaid the next step is to develop the resources.
Så givet detta har man redan nu inna man nu påbörjat AFAs första egna provtagningar i området vissa positiva indikationer. Nu har AFA som målsättning att i denne den första egna och vilken dag som helst nu avslutade första provtagningen som sedan även kommer att åtföljas av ytterligare en till provtagningsrunda antagligen mot slutet av sommaren försöka förädla detta område under en 6 månaders period. Resultatet från AFAs första provtagnings arbete kommer att enligt bolaget kunna resovisas undee Maj månad.
"The first sampling has been very positive and has proven presence of diamonds. We now go backto where we have seen the deposits and explore and prospect for the nextsix months, and then with that completed we can probably envisage trial mining during the last quarter of 2011. From trial mining we switch tocommercial mining."
So in order to conclude by adding the info from this article to what Mr Leveille just recently replyed to via email we then get the following future schedule for AFA:
"we are currently carrying out a sampling program on our new concession EPL3403 and the results will be published in the coming month."
"We have made an agreement to acquire EPL 3403 and we are currently sampling it with the goal to follow up with a second sampling within 3 to 4 months after completion of the first round."
Comment - that is a second sampling at EPL 3403 possibly by August
Så bolagets VD Mr Leveille flaggar här för trialmining under slutet av innevarande år för denna nya koncession EPL 3403. Utöver detta fastslår man även att m,an kommer att genomföra även trial mining på Block J i ett senare skede efter det att första explorations fasen av nya området EPL 3403 genomförts.
"We discovered a profitable diamond deposit at Block J, which we will go back and mine, some 250km north of EPL 3403, in an area where diamonds were discovered for the first time. The diamonds are known to be smaller, but the resources there still have the potential to be over 1 million carats. We´ll do trial mining after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Potential to be over 1 million carats.
http://www.afri-can.com/en/article-published-business-live-november-25-2010.htm
- Comment trial mining at Block J after first exploration phase on EPL 3403. Could this mean after first or second sampling or possibly trial mining at EPL 3403?
So the company´s plans to seek a secondary listing on the JSE – its primary listing is on the Toronto Stock Exchange´s Venture exchange where is has been listed since 1986 - seems a natural step.
The listing, he says, will likely be in the second half of 2011, as it takes some time to prepare.
In short:
- First sampling of EPL3403 started April 27 and will be finished no later than 30 days later.
- Results of sampling will be made public in May
- Second sampling of EPL3403 to start possibly by August
- Secondary listing on the JSE second half of 2011
- Trial mining of EPL3403 last quarter 2011
- Trial mining of Block J after the first exploration phase of EPL3403
STP
We have some resistance at 1.75,1.9 as well as 2.01. We just need two days of closing above these levels and we'll be charging forth like nothing you have seen before. Nothing goes straight up without any sort of consolidation, strength gathering and what have you.
Nobody that has any type of insights in this play says this isn’t a great opportunity for further valuation improvements going further as far as SP is concerned.
In the mean time let's compare STP with another oil play, PXX.TO that has roughly the same reserves, same number of shares and within a year roughly the same production (note this was BEFORE yesterday’s news regarding McKay 2 as well as Wabiskaw). One difference is that PXX today is debt free but if all goes as planned with McKay phase 1 STP also will be debt free by 2015.
Now compared with STP PXX today has more than four times the valuation. Kinda gives you an idea doesn’t it about where STPs SP is heading. Can't blame Soros and his crew for entering in to this play at this particular moment. Maybe somebody right now is trying to accumulate before the real heavy blast takes us to much higher SP levels. Time sure is starting to run out if you want to accumulate at these levels.
"Soros reports that Quantum held at January 31, 2011, 20,400,000 shares and $25,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.00% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures due June 30, 2016 ("Debentures") of the company. The Debentures are convertible in to common shares 465.1163 common shares of the ("Company") shares per $1,000 principal amount of Debentures until June 30th, 2016. The shares and debentures, if converted, held by Quantum represents in aggregate approximately 9.18%of all outstanding shares."
http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=00008HupafOULoEP60UF88AJxka:-1
This as now both macro and geopolitical events support much higher oil prices in the future than anticipated by most analysts. Or anybody here that sincerely believe the situation as it now has developed in the Arab world will be a quick fix?
Brent $/barrel 123,11
WTI $/barrel 109,10
In addition we now also of course have some STP specific events to strengthen our case:
- Senlac Phase H (2 SAGD well pairs) already in place by end of Mars 2011
- an additional 2 SAGD well pairs mid April
- Red Earth, Q2-2011, restart pilot project. Objective is to produce minimum 10.000 bpd.
- updating of the company´s reserves & resources after fiscal year end (June 30)
- McKay Phase 1 12.000 bpd construction updates (Road 80% completed, Plant and Pad site construction 75% completed, 200 person camp installed growing to 300 by mid March, all long lead equipment orders are placed and shop fabrication has begun.)
- McKay Phase 2 24.000 bpd application to be submitted during fall 2011.
- Senlac Phase J during third quarter 2011
- Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
- McKay phase 1 Production of 12.000 bpd to start Feb/March 2012
So then adding current and future production together we get this summary:
Senlac 4.000 - 5.000 bpd
McKay 1 12.000 bpd
McKay 2 24.000 bpd
Read Earth Pilot Project - to start during Q2 2011 (objective minimum 10.000 bpd)
Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
We-re now fast approaching a future production opportunity of beyond 50.000 bpd. More than a 10 fold increase vs. current production levels in sight. That´s then the production opportunity level we´re you start getting some real and serious attention from larger players in the market e.ge like neighboring Petro China and the alike
Clearly as STP develops its land the more interest from other players will be visible:
"The deal gives PetroChina 60 percent control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.´s Mac Kay and Dover oil sands deposits in Alberta. The yield from the two deposits is likely to be modest when compared with total estimates of about 175 billion barrels of oil held in the sands, the largest after Saudi Arabia.
Industry analysts said China would likely seek to expand its Canadian tar sands portfolio."
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/01/05/China-buys-into-Canadian-tar-sands-exploitation-project/UPI-22041262732184/#ixzz1DYFkW8BQ
Here is what BMO Capital markets has to say about this play:
"We believe the market is still overestimating the levels of execution risks associated with this story and believe that the company's ability to demonstrate ongoing construction progress at McKay, along with additional exploration and a potential regulatory application at McKay, could act as further catalysts for the shares in 2011."
Page .6 : Solid underlying
“Our valuation includes MacKay leases with phase 1 un risked , but future expansion value risked at 50% chance. We value the undeveloped resources at 0.75/bbl. Adding in Senlac generates a NAV of 3.49.”
From the BMO Capital analysis p5:
"We estimate that the value of Senlac and Mckay phase 1 alone is in the range of $1.80 - 2/share, implying little value is being given to the companys other development opportunities or resource upside."
That is we´re currenly valued at even lower levels than what can be considered relevant when only including McKay 1 and Senlac and that no value what so ever at these levels are assigned to either of Mckay 2 (24.000 bpd), Read Earth (objective minimum 10.000 bpd) as well as Wabiskaw (significant potential project). All of these are projects in the pipe but then we also in addition to these have all the other undeveloped land to be explored as well that at these valuation levels are assigned 0 value.
"Our un risked net asset value estimate is nearly $6/share, which we believe represents the real upside potential of the shares as the company works to "de-risk" the value of its oil sands recourses through development"
Comment - BMO is definitely using a VERY conservative Oil price of $90 in 2015. Remember that this is only 4 years from now. Net asset value should be adjusted accordingly if you believe that oil will be higher than $90 in 4 years.
Expect these above numbers to be upgraded as the new reserves and recourses update will be published in June.
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/40E0D89E-3EE1-4D8F-9747-1D65A6341567.PDF
So bottom line with a severely undervalued play (by any standard), a ten times production increase in sight, with smart money like e.g. Soros buying large chunks in to this case and with reserves and production sites surrounded by large oil plays aggressively expanding their production like e.g. Petro China expanding in the very area you are developing (McKay), and with fantastic opportunities to increase both reserves as well as production within months, you got quite a lot going for you. Don't you agree?
Suthern Pacific Resources homepage
(check out the new corporate presentation)
http://www.shpacific.com/
Nobody that has any type of insights in this play says this isn’t a great opportunity for further valuation improvements going further as far as SP is concerned.
In the mean time let's compare STP with another oil play, PXX.TO that has roughly the same reserves, same number of shares and within a year roughly the same production (note this was BEFORE yesterday’s news regarding McKay 2 as well as Wabiskaw). One difference is that PXX today is debt free but if all goes as planned with McKay phase 1 STP also will be debt free by 2015.
Now compared with STP PXX today has more than four times the valuation. Kinda gives you an idea doesn’t it about where STPs SP is heading. Can't blame Soros and his crew for entering in to this play at this particular moment. Maybe somebody right now is trying to accumulate before the real heavy blast takes us to much higher SP levels. Time sure is starting to run out if you want to accumulate at these levels.
"Soros reports that Quantum held at January 31, 2011, 20,400,000 shares and $25,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.00% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures due June 30, 2016 ("Debentures") of the company. The Debentures are convertible in to common shares 465.1163 common shares of the ("Company") shares per $1,000 principal amount of Debentures until June 30th, 2016. The shares and debentures, if converted, held by Quantum represents in aggregate approximately 9.18%of all outstanding shares."
http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=00008HupafOULoEP60UF88AJxka:-1
This as now both macro and geopolitical events support much higher oil prices in the future than anticipated by most analysts. Or anybody here that sincerely believe the situation as it now has developed in the Arab world will be a quick fix?
Brent $/barrel 123,11
WTI $/barrel 109,10
In addition we now also of course have some STP specific events to strengthen our case:
- Senlac Phase H (2 SAGD well pairs) already in place by end of Mars 2011
- an additional 2 SAGD well pairs mid April
- Red Earth, Q2-2011, restart pilot project. Objective is to produce minimum 10.000 bpd.
- updating of the company´s reserves & resources after fiscal year end (June 30)
- McKay Phase 1 12.000 bpd construction updates (Road 80% completed, Plant and Pad site construction 75% completed, 200 person camp installed growing to 300 by mid March, all long lead equipment orders are placed and shop fabrication has begun.)
- McKay Phase 2 24.000 bpd application to be submitted during fall 2011.
- Senlac Phase J during third quarter 2011
- Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
- McKay phase 1 Production of 12.000 bpd to start Feb/March 2012
So then adding current and future production together we get this summary:
Senlac 4.000 - 5.000 bpd
McKay 1 12.000 bpd
McKay 2 24.000 bpd
Read Earth Pilot Project - to start during Q2 2011 (objective minimum 10.000 bpd)
Wabiskaw Pilot project - to start Q4 2011 (Significant potential project)
We-re now fast approaching a future production opportunity of beyond 50.000 bpd. More than a 10 fold increase vs. current production levels in sight. That´s then the production opportunity level we´re you start getting some real and serious attention from larger players in the market e.ge like neighboring Petro China and the alike
Clearly as STP develops its land the more interest from other players will be visible:
"The deal gives PetroChina 60 percent control of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.´s Mac Kay and Dover oil sands deposits in Alberta. The yield from the two deposits is likely to be modest when compared with total estimates of about 175 billion barrels of oil held in the sands, the largest after Saudi Arabia.
Industry analysts said China would likely seek to expand its Canadian tar sands portfolio."
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2010/01/05/China-buys-into-Canadian-tar-sands-exploitation-project/UPI-22041262732184/#ixzz1DYFkW8BQ
Here is what BMO Capital markets has to say about this play:
"We believe the market is still overestimating the levels of execution risks associated with this story and believe that the company's ability to demonstrate ongoing construction progress at McKay, along with additional exploration and a potential regulatory application at McKay, could act as further catalysts for the shares in 2011."
Page .6 : Solid underlying
“Our valuation includes MacKay leases with phase 1 un risked , but future expansion value risked at 50% chance. We value the undeveloped resources at 0.75/bbl. Adding in Senlac generates a NAV of 3.49.”
From the BMO Capital analysis p5:
"We estimate that the value of Senlac and Mckay phase 1 alone is in the range of $1.80 - 2/share, implying little value is being given to the companys other development opportunities or resource upside."
That is we´re currenly valued at even lower levels than what can be considered relevant when only including McKay 1 and Senlac and that no value what so ever at these levels are assigned to either of Mckay 2 (24.000 bpd), Read Earth (objective minimum 10.000 bpd) as well as Wabiskaw (significant potential project). All of these are projects in the pipe but then we also in addition to these have all the other undeveloped land to be explored as well that at these valuation levels are assigned 0 value.
"Our un risked net asset value estimate is nearly $6/share, which we believe represents the real upside potential of the shares as the company works to "de-risk" the value of its oil sands recourses through development"
Comment - BMO is definitely using a VERY conservative Oil price of $90 in 2015. Remember that this is only 4 years from now. Net asset value should be adjusted accordingly if you believe that oil will be higher than $90 in 4 years.
Expect these above numbers to be upgraded as the new reserves and recourses update will be published in June.
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/40E0D89E-3EE1-4D8F-9747-1D65A6341567.PDF
So bottom line with a severely undervalued play (by any standard), a ten times production increase in sight, with smart money like e.g. Soros buying large chunks in to this case and with reserves and production sites surrounded by large oil plays aggressively expanding their production like e.g. Petro China expanding in the very area you are developing (McKay), and with fantastic opportunities to increase both reserves as well as production within months, you got quite a lot going for you. Don't you agree?
Suthern Pacific Resources homepage
(check out the new corporate presentation)
http://www.shpacific.com/
fredag 15 april 2011
Crossing the Rubicon
Talk by Michael C. Ruppert author of "Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil" given January 15, 2005 at Kane Hall, UW Campus Seattle. Part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy9JCDchk34 Part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ1xkYfjfsU&feature=related
Southern Pacific to Persue 24.000 bpd expansion of STP McKay
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 14, 2011) - Southern Pacific Resource Corp. ("Southern Pacific" or the "Company") (TSX:STP) is pleased to report that the drilling results from this past winter's McKay exploration program have confirmed sufficient bitumen resources to support Southern Pacific's planned Phase 2 expansion, which is expected to add an incremental 24,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of bitumen processing capacity to the 12,000 bbl/d STP-McKay Thermal Project currently under construction. Resource Update From December 2010 to March 2011 Southern Pacific drilled a total of 38 coreholes, focused primarily on the eastern side of its existing STP-McKay project area. This brings the total corehole count to 88 inside the existing 10.5 square mile project area, which provides more than adequate delineation of the resource to understand its characteristics. The Company is pleased to report that the recent drilling confirmed the high quality of the bitumen resource identified from previous drilling programs, particularly on the east side of the project area, where the project area was less delineated. The significant feature of the STP-McKay McMurray oil sands is that they are largely continuous, both laterally and vertically, and are free of lean zones or shale barriers. The east side of the project area has now been delineated to a density that is suitable for developing well pad locations and trajectories and will exceed minimum requirements for an expansion application. GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., Southern Pacific's independent reserves evaluators, are currently updating the Company's reserves and resource estimates at McKay. Results will be available after the fiscal year end (June 30, 2011). Expansion Plans Based on the drilling results at McKay, Southern Pacific has decided to proceed with expansion plans designed to add 24,000 bbl/d of bitumen processing capacity to the project, bringing the total design capacity to 36,000 bbl/d. Southern Pacific estimates a total producing project life of over 20 years, based on the discovered bitumen to date, which the Company believes will provide an optimal project life to maximize the project value. Wabiskaw Pilot Project The existing STP-McKay project area includes another formation containing significant quantities of bitumen in place that will not be recovered using typical steam assisted gravity drainage ("SAGD") techniques. The Wabiskaw zone is above the McMurray formation, separated by about 10 metres of shale and shale-y sand. The zone contains high quality bitumen in a clean sand that averages six to eight metres thick, which is too thin for typical SAGD. The Company has recognized the existence of this zone as an incremental potential resource since the original coreholes were drilled within this project in 2009. Southern Pacific has now completed a significant amount of technical work on the Wabiskaw and believes bitumen is recoverable through thermal recovery taking advantage of conductive heat generated from SAGD chambers below in the McMurray formation, and cyclic steam stimulation ("CSS") in single leg horizontal wellbores drilled into the Wabiskaw. The Company views this opportunity as a means to extract additional bitumen with minimal additional capital or energy input. Southern Pacific expects to drill a horizontal observation well into the Wabiskaw zone in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011 to evaluate the concept from one of the first two well pads constructed in STP-McKay Phase 1. Provisions have already been made to accommodate additional Wabiskaw wellbores on the first two well pads that have already been constructed. An updated corporate presentation is now available on Southern Pacific's website (www.shpacific.com) that provides additional information and illustrations of the corehole results, expansion plans and Wabiskaw pilot project. http://www.shpacific.com/en/news/stp-2011-04-14.pdf
måndag 4 april 2011
söndag 3 april 2011
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