“Only fear of the consequences of a break-up is now keeping it together”.
The greatest policy mistake now building in the system is this: policymakers will confuse the temporary fall in commodity prices with a permanent reduction of inflation pressures: China, India, Australia come to mind. I think the opposite will turn out to be true. The recent crisis caused commodity prices to fall somewhat but the production constraints are now worse than ever due to lack of bank lending and working capital. So, commodity prices jump back up again very fast. This means central banks especially in emerging markets may start easing way too soon. I bet inflation pressures worldwide are barely beginning.
http://pippamalmgren.com/81.html
The greatest policy mistake now building in the system is this: policymakers will confuse the temporary fall in commodity prices with a permanent reduction of inflation pressures: China, India, Australia come to mind. I think the opposite will turn out to be true. The recent crisis caused commodity prices to fall somewhat but the production constraints are now worse than ever due to lack of bank lending and working capital. So, commodity prices jump back up again very fast. This means central banks especially in emerging markets may start easing way too soon. I bet inflation pressures worldwide are barely beginning.
http://pippamalmgren.com/81.html
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