tisdag 9 augusti 2011

A National Debt Of $14 Trillion? Try $211 Trillion

Kotlikoff explains that America's "unofficial" payment obligations — like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits — jack up the debt figure substantially.

"If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That's the fiscal gap," he says. "That's our true indebtedness."


To eliminate the fiscal gap, Kotlikoff says, the U.S. would have to have tax increases and spending reductions far beyond what's being negotiated right now in Washington.

"What you have to do is either immediately and permanently raise taxes by about two-thirds, or immediately and permanently cut every dollar of spending by 40 percent forever. The [Congressional Budget Office's] numbers say we have an absolutely enormous problem facing us."

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/06/139027615/a-national-debt-of-14-trillion-try-211-trillion?ft=1&f=1001

Were coming to a point US imperial overstretch will have to be dealt with. This is not a deficit problem only dealing with having to reduce healthcare, Medicaid, medicate and so forth. As some 50% of every tax dollar today in the US goes directly in one way or the other in what can be describes as corporate welfare to the military industrial sector that then is where the significant cuts has to be taken. Even cleares as som 40% of all the cost associated to finance the current US war undertakings is taken out of the defecit.

The Geopolitical environment is changing and changing fast. New alliance is forming and question then how long before the petrodollar i dead? For how long will resource rich countries accept more and more debased $us as compensation for their e.g. oil?

In the midst of all of this one also has to remember that the US today is the world primary food producer. It produces e.g. wheat, corn, Soy that is exported all over the world.

As dependent that food production is on oil well then its fair to expect higher future prices. Add to this growing world populations and increasing food demand. Question then would be in what currency would Americans want to be paid in order to export?

Clear is that demand for corn has been soaring. Export of corn to china is expected to quadruple from here combined with a high demand for ethanol.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/markets-hub-us-corn-to-china-export-quadrupled/24B8B2D2-5897-494D-A94C-45771CC603A2#!24B8B2D2-5897-494D-A94C-45771CC603A2

The nearby chart, based on data from the Department of Agriculture, shows the remarkable trend over a decade. In 2001, only 7% of U.S. corn went for ethanol, or about 707 million bushels. By 2010, the ethanol share was 39.4%, or nearly five billion bushels out of total U.S. production of 12.45 billion bushels. Four of every 10 rows of corn now go to produce fuel for American cars or trucks, not food or feed.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703396604576088010481315914.html

So there is a decision to be made here - produce food or ethanol. In any case corn prices will increase putting even more pressure on poor countries that need to import food.

Wheat is the primary food in North Africa and in the Middle East but the highest consumer per capita is in fact Denmark. But the primary use of wheat in Denmark is in fact as animal feed. Some 80% of all wheat in Denmark is used for that purpose. After China, India the US is the World’s third largest wheat producer. Clearly the unrest in the Middle East can be related to the fact whet prices have been soaring.

10-year commodity price chart for Wheat, US, HRW
http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/wheat.html

Meanwhile the Chinese are voicing out what only can be described as significantly more aggressive signals to the US in regards of it US Treasuries holding. There clearly is a political geopolitical aspect to this as in fact the very first rating institute to downgrade the US not was S&P but in fact a Chinese rating institute.

The Chinese now clearly try to put some hard pressure on the US and in fact these Communists favors austerity. "For the people By the People"?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — China used Standard & Poor’s decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating to issue a sharply-worded rebuke of the U.S. government on Saturday, saying Washington can no longer borrow its way out of trouble.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-rips-us-on-debt-rating-downgrade-2011-08-06

And Russia as well is loud about their dissatisfaction with the way US manages its financial affairs. In fact Putins views the US now as nothing more than parasites.

What Did Putin Call the U.S.?
http://www.realclearworld.com/2011/08/02/what_did_putin_call_the_us_126215.html

In reality the US is under severe attack domestically as well as overseas. The US needs oil and imports some 2/3rds of all oil it consumes. The world need food and the US here really is a key player internationally. Just imagine what would happen if that US supply for some reason would not make it to the markets?

Are we beginning to see a new food for oil rather than dollar approach as part of the future US strategy? I do think however that militarily the US will have but limited ability to secure its interest internationally and combine then this with a less and less attractive dollar trade and its clear foods important as a geopolitical weapon will increase.

Problem with food, in the way food production today is structured and organized, is that in all aspects its totally dependent on the availability of oil. On average it takes some 10 calories of energy to get one energy calorie on your plate.

Netherlands joins Germany in opposing bigger EFSF

AMSTERDAM -(MarketWatch)- The Netherlands joined Germany Monday in warning against boosting the volume of the euro zone's rescue fund, saying it won't solve the problems in the currency area, and it even may hurt the solvency of guarantornations.

In a letter to lawmakers, Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said that an increased European Financial Stability Facility is "no panacea" to solve the mounting troubles in the euro zone. "Any significant increase of the EFSF can...have consequences on the creditworthiness of guarantor nations," he said.

A bigger EFSF therefore shouldn't be seen as an alternative to achieving structural reforms and debt sustainability, he added.

His comments echoed those of German officials, who earlier Monday voiced similar statements. A spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the fund will stay as agreed at a July 21 euro zone summit. "The EFSF will remain what it is, and keep the volume it had before July 21," he said at a press conference, removing hopes of a more robust EFSF.

The positions of Germany and the Netherlands clash with the European Commission, which has called for a massive increase in the EFSF's current lending capacity of EUR440 billion guaranteed by euro-zone governments.

Market watchers have said a new volume of up to EUR1.5 trillion or more might be needed to reassure investors that the fund can offset threats to the solvency of governments.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/netherlands-joins-germany-in-opposing-bigger-efsf-2011-08-08

'Euro on edge, will collapse by November if no new crisis plan'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Qd-oohi5c&feature=player_embedded

SDR .. anyone..?

Food Riot Fears Strike Japan After Rice Trading Halted Due To Radiation Contamination

Fears of food riots strike Japan after rice trading is halted due to a 40% price spike triggered by massive hoarding of the remaining radiation free rice supply.

It is time to start paying very close attention the events unfolding in Japan as the nation teeters on the verge of food riots which may serve as an example of what other nations in a similar situation would face.

As we approach the 5 month marker since the onset of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan has repeatedly assured the public that the nation’s food supply was safe from radiation. Japan has given those reassurances despite warnings from experts that the nuclear fallout has already surpassed 20 Hiroshima bombs with no end in site and experts say ‘off-scale’ levels of lethal radiation at Fukushima infer millions dying.

Time and again those assurances have proven to be false. Radiation has found in everything from soil and sewage to tea and beef. Even worse, a just released report revealed that Japan ran simulations back as far as 1984 which showed 18,000 deaths from acute radiation exposure and a 55 mile radius would be rendered permanently uninhabitable. All of these factors have entirely destroyed the public’s trust in their government.
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2011/08/08/food-riot-fears-strike-japan-rice-trading-halted-due-radiation-contamination-51751/

Riots Rage: Anarchy in UK as London turns into war zone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylYqEvUtg-k&feature=player_embedded#at=89

Protest in Spain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2njq5yiGYqg&feature=player_embedded

Arab Revolution coming to OECD and Europe?

Next Wave

Now in the midst of the turmoil related to the US downgrade and as both Italy and Spain are under pressure forcing the EFSF to act decisively were beginning to see also France and Belgium as possible new targets. The ratings institutes of course will dictate this as to when it will happen.

Downgrading France would be the first step and as this then creates great market volatility it opens up for the hedge funds to really go in for the kill. The rating institutes are in fact the storm troops allowing the real big buck to be earned by the highly leveraged hedge funds derivatives actions. The rating institutes are so in bed with the financial sector and only care about their relationship with them. They hear their masters call -now its time to transfer wealth from the people to the few but first lets earn a bundle.

In fact these rating institutes are outright owned in many cases by the Oligarchs. Moody’s as an example is one of Buffets holdings. So there you have it blatant for anyone to see.

The ammo then used by these Hedge funds was in reality given to then during the 70ties, when worldwide and for some very obscure reason the financial markets where "deregulated" allowing for more and more leverage and the creation of new financial instruments such as derivatives.

That’s ammo, we the people very easily and if we really want to, could take back. Again "a problem well stated is a problem half solved" and as long as we allow talking heads, economic "analysts" (that almost exclusively represents the banks) without anyone ever opposing them to define this as "a PIIGS problem" and where they claim austerity, as absurd as it is closing schools, selling of vital parts of the society to private interests, laying of firefighters, closing prisons, reducing benefits and heal care, withdrawing pensions etc, actually is the way to go well then you’re just where these people want you to be.

The underlying problem of it all instead is the deregulation f the financial markets. The financial sector needs first of all downsizing and that where the real austerity needs to be focused at. This lazy, complaisant, greedy and destructive sector allowing for severe miss allocation of recourses needed in society, short term interests, mispricing and outright fraudulent behavior is in fact what needs to be severely cut.

Some people are now starting to wake up of this bad dream and for example Greece has just recently banned short selling. As preventive measures thats then what Italy, Spain and France needs to do asap. And while they’re at it then also ban derivatives and foreign hedge funds in their countrys.

Then it’s also clear more and more banks are getting distressed. BOA , Citigroup, MS if these guys are to survive they need liquidity because they cannot manage on their own. In fact they’re insolvent and have been for a while.

So bottom line more countries getting in distress and more banks and financial institutions under pressure. Now this is in fact worse than what was the case when the first bailout was made. Now we see how well that has played out and how much better off were now because of it.

Unfortunately the powers at be – your Oligarch – wants more stimuli and they are going to get it. Problem is clear EFSF is soon to become exhausted as there is no way they (Germany) will be able to hold up not only Italy and Span but in addition France for any significant amount of time.

Equally clear is that the US, having tried this approach now since 2008 is on a verge of collapse and simply cannot take on more debt, were now entering in to new territory.

We’re now seeing money that could have been used in the real economy go to waste. It’s nothing but outright capital destruction as has been the case beginning with the bailouts 2008.

That’s why the leaders in Davos came up with the number $100 trillion of injection, or perpetual QE, needed to the financial system. Sure that is what you need if your intent is to so save all what’s in fact rotten but isn’t it better to just clear it out once and for all? Clear is that in conjuction to the implementation of the SDR preciuos metals will be demoneytised via severely restricting trading options, limits etc making conficastion a thing of the past. You can have your physical gold as much as you want but it will be useless as there is no way you could trade it.

This is a really great and perfect time for the SDR!
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2011/08/this-is-really-great-and-perfect-time.html

But clear is that the real solution would be to instead clear all bad debts, let insolvent institutions fail and then to counter debt reductions deflationary forces counter strike with real investments in the real economy building real infrastructure, improve schooling and heal care.

Even if from an economists perspective it may be good business to burn down the forest, plant fast growing grains, deplete all natural recourses and then get out of there it doesn’t make it a viable model. That approach surely is nothing but insane as the real, actual costs are staggering. Oddly enough we have allowed for a thinking called economics where all the real cost simply doesent show up on the balanse sheet. That analogy then is exactly the same in regards of a country. Even if hedge funds can gain short term and huge profits it doesn’t justify the fact the result is less education, less healthcare, less salary, more taxes etc. Add to that the facts that it is immoral.

Now is the time to stop this blatant up your face oppression. Reregulate the financial sector, put the rating institutes people behind bars for the crimes they committed in regards of the subprime rating, put GS in jail for cooking the books in Greece etc, ban naked shorts selling immediately as well as the use of derivatives.

RIG-anomics. GOP Ignores Ronald Reagan's Trickle-Down Economics Failures
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63LrW-0Cv2M

måndag 8 augusti 2011

QE what is it good for?

John Maynard Keynes had one idea he referred to as the “liquidity trap”. The condition is characterized by an economy in which interest rates are so low that consumers, business and investors don't care if money is in cash or in interest-paying investments.

BNY Mellon was reacting to a run to the bank by companies fleeing even U.S. Treasury bills for the safety of the bank. When they announced big corporations had to pay a fee rather than to pay them interest when depositing money on their account.

As long as consumers and businesses hold cash instead of spending or investing it because they expect the economy to be weak, the economy will be weak.

It makes the Federal Reserve's usual monetary policy impotent. Cutting interest rates below zero is (almost) impossible. Printing money to buy bonds creates sterile bank reserves but not much additional lending or spending.

In order to get out of a liquidity trap according to classical Keynesianism is that the government borrows and spend it on real infrastructure and create real jobs. This is what should have been done in the first place rather that bailing out insolvent (very important I’ll come back to that later) banks and most certainly in Obama’s follow up attempt. Frankly there wasn’t very much bang for the buck from the Obama fiscal stimuli at all.

Now and as actually deficit cuts talks has become all of a sudden the main topic in Washington, maybe adding another round of stimuli that would further add on the deficit may not be what the treasuries holders would like to hear?

Yet another way actually proposed by the Swedish mega theorist Lars O. Svensson is to devalue the currency.

Lastly creating the idea that inflation is a problem and that the objective with fiscal policy in fact is to create inflation would be another way to get out of the liquidity trap as people then surely would not like to horde cash but rather put it in to circulation.

This is what Harvard Economist Kenneth Rogoff says: "The only practical way to shorten the coming period of painful deleveraging and slow growth would be a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4% to 6% for several years." Incomes rise with inflation, debts wouldn't, and they'd be easier to pay off.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff83/English

Then what if the cause isn’t a liquidity problem? What if the real underlying problem is a solvency problem? Throwing good money trying to save insolvent banks isn’t then going to solve anything.

Most likely well get nowhere until the $600 worth of derivatives has been neutralized, disarmed and cleared out.

Then and my view is that there will be no progress as long as the financial sector in any way, shape or form is the beneficiary of any stimuli. Now that in fact would be a real deflationary process clearing all of that debt clean. But that could then be managed in a situation like this by allowing the treasury generate new interest free loans aimed 100% at new infrastructure, get people in real jobs, so that they can pay tax as well as consume.

This way the deficit gradually will be paid off and all issues in the economy related to insolvency managed.

Are the banks solvent? Part of a talk by David Malone, author of The Debt Generation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD0YCSNdo8w&feature=related

The Banks Big Lie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy9yluyizGo&NR=1

CSPAN Rep Paul Kanjorski Reviews the Bailout Situation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD8viQ_DhS4

The BIS review is a good way to grasp the dimensions long term monetary expansion has brought upon us. A net risk of $14 TRILLION compares with the annual GDP of the USA. Nobody, absolutely nobody can afford this tab in the case of an unorderly unwinding of this market that is roughly 12 times the size of the global economy
http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting

Now that’s why the leaders in Davos came up with the number $100 trillion of injection, or perpetual QE, needed to the financial system. Now that’s then if you intend so save all what’s in fact rotten but isn’t it better to just clear it out once and for all?

This is a really great and perfect time for the SDR!
http://intheendwerealldebt.blogspot.com/2011/08/this-is-really-great-and-perfect-time.html






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House Session 2011-May-24 Peak Oil

U.S. House
General Speeches

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
R-Maryland, 6th District

Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGjYQyMfqIY

Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OfS8IKegX4&feature=related

Part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQtzt-emRJI&feature=related

Part 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeDF8b1PMWQ&feature=related

Peak Oil: Globalisation and the Economy

Lots of focus right now on the financial markets, Central bank intervention ect. The real McCoy however is in fact limits, not in the financial world, thus financial measures cannot really solve the problem as were just throwing good money on bad and thus escalate the capital destruction process further. Instead there are actual limitations in the real world that in a very uncompromising way dictate our future.

What actually is needed now is to totally and completely forget about the financial markets as they have show to be absolutely dysfunctional in any way you see it in terms of providing good real investments, real pricing mechanisms and efficient recourse allocation.

In fact the financial as well as monetary system as we know it today is nothing but a mirage. Fine if you want to invest and speculate in a mirage but then be prepared it will at one point be taken away from you - completely.

Rather than discussing how to now try to in more and more acute manners fix what in reality is broken we need to focus on how we should use our money (what’s left of it) in order to invest in new infrastructure in the real world as the post oil era now has begun.

Jeffrubin - 3 minutes on the effects of Peak oil to Globalisation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGjYQyMfqIY

Peak Oil and Economic Contraction
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejHjxJ4MhNM&NR=1

Fatih Birol (IEA) interview (Catalyst - Oil Crunch, ABC TV)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKkISqOCnVA&feature=related

One example would be how to produce our food by rediscovering the photosynthesis and natural inputs like e.g. rain rather than tractors, plowing and pumping up ground water. As an added benefit nature then will be gradually healed and brought back to a sustainable system.

The Amazing Benefits of Grass-fed Meat
Converting cropland to perennial pastures produces healthier meat, builds better soil and combats climate change
Read more: http://www.motherearthnews.com/Sustainable-Farming/Grass-Fed-Meat-Benefits.aspx#ixzz1UQ0ZZVmw

Its in fact not only Peak Oil that will dictate our future, we have depletion of Ground Water as highly efficient diesel engines and drilling techniques allow for more water deeper down in the earth crest further down to be exploited, we also have an alarmin situation regarding sweet water were all natural sweet wates lakes world wide dissapears at an alarming pacee, we have world vide Top Soil depletion as more and more efficient agricultural methods makes the soil vulnerable for wind and the sun as well as less and less nutritional, we have soon depleted most fish in the oceans so that the fishing industry in fact will have gone extins as we know it within already a 40 years period.

These are just a few examples on how the real world to a larger extent from now on will dictate the type of world we live in and that regardless of what interventions are made by central banks and what happens in the financial system.

Topsoil depletion has been the cause for the demise of many great civilizations. It is believed, for example, that the Sumerian civilization was partly destroyed because of desertification due to topsoil depletion.

To end this on a more positive side - imagine all nature in the Middle East, the Fertile Crescent (where agriculture actually began) and all around the Mediterranean restructured back to its original state. That then would be a real and profound positive environmental impact of epic proportions.

Britain facing food crisis as world's soil 'vanishes in 60 years'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/agriculture/farming/6828878/Britain-facing-food-crisis-as-worlds-soil-vanishes-in-60-years.html

Fresh Water: More Precious Than Oil
http://www.whole-systems.org/water.html

Black based his statement on a 2006 study that was published in Science that predicts a “global collapse” of ocean biodiversity due to overfishing; all species currently fished, they said, would be gone by 2048.
http://www.canadaandtheworld.com/marinelifedisappearing.html

In any case Peak Oil sure will take care of all of these problems by itself. With no oil farming will not be dependent on big machinery, tilling, with no oil boats will not be able to go out on insustrialised scale deep sea fishing endevours, and will less energy disel engines will not be able to either drill nore pump upp water from deep down in the earth. That way nature sure will mend it self. Only question then is how we humans will be able to adjust then and if were able to do it in time?

George Carlin on The Environment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjmtSkl53h4